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Shares jittery over slowdown in economy, US stalemate 

 
Mumbai, Nov 12: Indian shares are expected to come under pressure this week on worries over a slowing domestic economy and as the US markets fret over tech earnings and uncertainty about who will control the White House.

"I see the market opening with a 100 point gap downwards,"said DT Gandhi Securities' chief dealer Kuntal Shah.

Index-heavyweight technology shares, which are prone to price swings in the US markets, are expected to lead the fall.

The US Nasdaq index fell 5.35 per cent on Friday, to its lowest close for the year after a weak sales outlook from Dell Computer Corp, tech-laden index has fallen 12.2 per cent on the week and is down more than 25 per cent year-to-date.

The 30-share Bombay exchange index finished flat at 3941.13 points last week, falling over two percent on Friday, after breaking 4000 mid-week for the first time in nearly a month.

"The market had appeared to be recovering in the past couple of weeks, but I see it catching up with the Nasdaq weakness fast," Mr Shah said.

Most of the recovery was based on bargain hunting by funds after nearly two months of weakness and aided by some short covering by speculators. But investments henceforth are likely to be very selective, across sectors, fund managers say.

Lingering uncertainty over who will become the next US President is expected to drive foreign funds to the sidelines this week, analysts said. It may be at least a week before the winner of the election is confirmed.

Government data released on Friday reinforced analyst concerns about an overall economic slowdown.

India's industrial production growth dropped to 5.4 per cent in the first half of 2000-01 (April-March), from 6.4 per cent in the year-ago period.

Independent think-tanks and the central bank had earlier cut their gross domestic product (GDP) estimates, following patchy monsoon rains which are expected to hit India's agricultural economy and the industrial slowdown.

The latest data is expected to dampen old economy shares, which had risen in the past week on bargain hunting. "We believe only the technology stocks could provide forward momentum," said Kotak MahindraAMC chief executive officer Shekhar Sathe.

A survey conducted last week of the 14 software companies showed profits had risen 131 per cent on average for the three months ended September, and the sector is expected to maintain growth rates helped by high margin Internet and e-commerce revenues.

(Reuters)

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