Simultaneously, CAS had predicted that DPC's phase-I would have been backed down marginally during 1999-00 "owing to the relatively higher cost of liquid fuel vis-a-vis other coal-based plants in the MSEB system". The report has said that the capacity addition by independent power producers (IPP) such as DPC (2,184 mw), Reliance (447 mw) and Ispat (1,082 mw) was quite inevitable for the MSEB system in "order to meet its energy demand".

"While an energy deficit is observed in the initial years, with the addition of capacities, the demand-supply gap is expected to be bridged beyond the year 2001-02."

Furthermore, a marginal surplus is expected between 2002-03 and 2004-05, "leading to a likely backing down of some of the power plants in the MSEB system".

In case of supply under base load demand, which indicates firm commitments on the MSEB's part, there is likely to be an energy deficit in the initial period. With the addition of capacities beyond 2001-02, the demand-supply gap is bridged, and a marginal energy surplus (ranging from 1 to 4.5 per cent) is observed between 2002-03 and 2003-04.

"However, with the consequent steady increase in demand and no significant addition in capacities, there is expected to be an energy deficit of around 10.9 per cent by 2006-07," the report said. In the alternative scenario, the energy surplus would be in the range of about 16 per cent of the energy demand in 2002-03 and 2003-04. However, by 2006-07, there would be decline in the energy surplus with a steady increase in demand.

For DPC, auxiliary consumption has been assumed to be zero (as per the power purchase agreement) and availability at 90 per cent. The availability of Ispat and Reliance projects has been assumned at 87 per cent and 90 per cent respectively. However, in case of seven multi-fuel plants, the availability has been assumed at 80 per cent.

Crisil has reiterated that a "substantial supply shortfall exists in the scenario with no IPPs. The aggregate demand for the MSEB is expected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.4 per cent up to 2007. In contrast, the aggregate available supply (in MKwh) is expected to grow at a CAGR of 6 per cent. The Crisil report, which was discussed by the state government and the MSEB, deserves significance as the MSEB chairman Vinay Bansal, in a communication to the energy department, had said that the MSEB's projections on DPC power project were "off-the-mark". Mr Bansal had pointed out that although the base load capacity requirement was projected at 11,600 mw in March 2001, the actual base load demand today is 6,400 mw only.