The Bill takes to logical conclusion The World Bank recommendation for a comprehensive ban on advertising and promotion of tobacco products. The bank says that a comprehensive ban on advertising and promotion of tobacco products will reduce demand by around 7 per cent. The bank also feels the ban coupled with a sustained public awareness initiative could persuade almost 23 million smokers to quit and avert close to 5 million deaths caused by tobacco worldwide.

The cigarette industry does not buy these arguments. Saying that it will not translate into a fall in sales of cigarettes, they ask how effective will it be in a country like India where awareness initiatives still have a long way to go. Secondly, 82 per cent of the tobacco consumers here are not even cigarette smokers. Besides, cigarette manufacturers argue, advertising and sponsoring events don't translate into sales. The cigarette companies contend that advertising is intended only to establish brands and not create a demand for cigarettes.

A senior industry analyst says, "Cigarettes have a very loyal clientele and despite this ban sales will not be affected. A brand like Wills has its own brand equity and nothing can change it."

Nevertheless, the industry is not happy. Reacting to the bill, the Tobacco Institute of India, which is the apex body of tobacco farmers, exporters and traders and cigarette manufacturers, says: ``We had hoped that the legislation would be drafted after discussions with the affected segments of the industry." The institute is of the opinion that a pragmatic policy could help India generate substantial increases in revenue collection without any increase in tobacco consumption.

While the industry debates the implications of the Bill, other related sectors seem quite concerned. As a consequence of the Bill, sports and cultural events that are endorsed by tobacco companies would be the first to be affected. Reacting to the Bill, ITC has said that it will pull out of any further sponsorships.

So, will the events suffer? He is of the opinion that temporarily there may be a shake-up but then things will fall in place. After all events and sports sponsored by the cigarette majors are very popular and have tremendous public appeal. And it is only a matter of time before new sponsors step in. It will particularly take time in cases where huge amounts are required, he adds. ITC used to spend anywhere between Rs 28-Rs 34 lakh on a single cricket match.

Little wonder, BCCI seems shaken up by the turn of events. A senior official says, "Earlier one did not have to look beyond ITC, but now it seems that we have to look for a new sponsorship for every match or series."

The advertising industry will also be hit because it gets revenue close to Rs 500 crore from this sector. Most cigarette companies have huge ad spends and they prominently advertise the events they sponsor. An agency like Bates in Kolkata gets 40 per cent of its revenue from ITC's cigarette account and close to 40 people work on this account.

Of course, most people are reserving their opinion for the time being-at least till the fine print of the Bill is available.