The prices fall was pronounced during the last three to four weeks, after a period of stability during November last and sliding in December. To top it all, there's the considerable supply pressure of new crop to be harvested during the March-June season.

This has resulted in record imports of cashew in the country even when India is said to be the largest producer of cashew nuts. Total imports during January to December 2000 was placed at 3,200,000 containers, i.e. 11 months of 2000 exceeded whole of 1999. Assuming December 2000 imports as approx 250,000 ctns, the total imports for 2000 will be a record 3.55 million ctns compared to 3.20 mn ctns in 1999 and 2.90 mn ctns in 1997 and 1998.

A top cashew exporter said: ``The current low prices of last few months will surely lead to some promotions and increased consumption which will absorb some of the increased supply.'' It must be noted that imports in 2000 have been higher than 1999 although the effects of the low kernel prices have not percolated to the roaster or end user level to the full extent.

``We would not venture to talk of higher prices - and we don't expect that there will be any big increase - but we can certainly expect a gradual price rise in the second half of the year. Next few weeks are crucial for the development of the market," industry sources said.

Meanwhile, a fair amount of business was done in $2.10-2.20 (FOB) range during December 2000/January 2001, most of it was for January-March shipments. Later on good volume was traded for April-June and some quantity for July-September as well. During the last two weeks of February, the prices came down rather fast - this week, W320s variety was traded as low as $1.90 (FOB) per lb from small/medium packers and $1.95/2.00 (FOB0 from medium/large packers.

Rawcashew crop in Tanzania and Mozambique were said to be good in terms of quantity but poor in quality. Outturns were substantially lower and size was also smaller. After a delay in sales and shipments from Tanzania due to the high price expectations, seed prices began moving quickly from mid-December.

Prices eased from a high of $850-870 (CIF India) per tonne to as low as $575 (CIF) for CDJKL quality.

Similarly, prices for Mozambique quality eased from $625 per tonne to a low of $475 (CIF). Most of the sales were to India, with very small quantities sold to Vietnam. There are still some stocks left in Tanzania and Mozambique but quality of most of it is reported to be very low. Kernel exports from India during January - November 2000 were 3.75 m containers, almost unchanged from 3.80 m containers in January - November 1999.

Imports in the European Union countries too are said to be higher that last year, because there is no change in exports from India despite a fall of almost 175,000 ctns in imports from India into the US.

Supply situation for 2001 seems comfortable. Following normal to good crops in Brazil, Indonesia and East Africa, the conditions for the upcoming crops in Vietnam, India and West Africa have been good so far.

Unless something dramatic happens in the next six to eight weeks we can expect reasonably good crop in terms of quantity (though quality is a different matter). General feeling is that prices will be soft for the next few weeks due to the pressure of new crop seed - over half the world production will be available in the next three to four months. How much will be the pressure and how low prices will go is very difficult to predict though.