Pegging its hopes on the surplus foodgrain stocks of 45 million tonne, stabilisation of the international oil prices, large sugar stocks, subdued international edible oil prices as well as the resilience shown by the manufacturing sector, the survey said the inflation rate for '01-02 will be moderate. Analysing the price movements in 00-01, it said despite the rise in the administered prices of fuels like in LPG, aviation fuel, kerosene and electricity in March and September last, the average inflation in the year under review has been not too high, it said.

But compared to other groups in the new WPI with a new base of 1993-94, the fuel group has accentuated the general price level by contributing almost 60 per cent to the level, as measured by end January, 01. But higher quantum of contribution by the fuels has also come about with a higher weightage of 14.23 per cent against the earlier 10.66 per cent, assigned to the group in the revamped WPI. However, a remarkable stability has come about in the prices of the manufactured products group, which commands over two-thirds weightage in the WPI, the Survey said.

Manufactured prices showed a spurt of only 3 per cent in the year as was the case in the past two years. Prices of essential commodities was kept under check, and this is cherished by the Survey saying this has gone unnoticed with all the hue and cry against the hikes in administered prices. It said of the 30 essential commodities, prices of 16 have been lower including items like wheat, rice and edible oils. The problem of plenty has been mooted by the Survey, saying the issue of the costs for the maintaining the surplus stocks with the FCI serious. Apart from the mis-alignment between the minimum support price, and acquisition-distribution costs of FCI, have touched a staggering figure of Rs 1,130 per quintal for rice and Rs 830 a quintal for wheat.

This is so even after revision of the costs brought about by July on the recommendation of the Expenditure Reforms Committee. The Survey noted that the CPI-based inflation has decelerated for industrial workers after April until December, for which the credit goes to the government.