Mumbai, Feb 25: The Madhav Godbole energy review committee is likely to examine various projections made by the Crisil Advisory Services (CAS), an arm of the credit rating agency, Crisil, towards tariffs and savings following the renegotiation of the Dabhol power project during the previous Shiv Sena-BJP government.Curiously, CAS had projected a saving of as many as Rs 50,000 crore following the SS-BJP government's renegotiation of the Dabhol PPA with Enron. It had estimated a tariff of Rs 3.01 per kwh for 1999, Rs 3.11 per kwh for 2000, Rs 3.24 per kwh for 2001, Rs 3.50 per kwh for 2002 and Rs 12.58 per kwh in 2019.
CAS, which had submitted a special report to the Maharashtra State Electricity Board (MSEB) on September 26, 1997, had estimated a total nominal saving of Rs 50,272 crore (equating total generation to that of the renegotiated power purchase agreement). This has been predicted with reference to the regasification cost being $0.75 MMBTU. CAS's report was presented to the MSEB after the Dabhol project was revived by the SS-BJP government on January 8, 1996.
CAS had projected real rupee base capital recovery charge savings of Rs 46,580 crore. This had been calculated by keeping all other charges according to the new PPA.
Furthermore, CAS had projected a real rupee incremental tax recovery charge saving of Rs 18,230 crore. It had said that in case of the fuel regasification cost, the increase in cash outflow would be to the tune of Rs 19,666 crore. All charges have been calculated as per the new PPA except for the liquified natural gas (LNG) cost wherein the LNG cost has been assumed to be according to the old PPA at $3.25 per MMBTU.
CAS had estimated MSEB's total outgo at Rs 1,751 crore in 1999, Rs 2,537 crore in 2000, Rs 5,593 crore in 2001, Rs 6,502 crore in 2002, Rs 6,502 crore in 2003 and Rs 21,678 crore in 2019.
MSEB sources told The Financial Express that these projections may be examined by the Madhav Godbole energy review committee during its next sitting on February 26-27 or later. These estimates will be reviewed especially when the per unit cost had shot up to a 'mindboggling' Rs 25.70 in June 2000 mainly due to an unusual hike in international fuel prices and a slide in the rupee. This move is also crucial especially when Crisil has downgraded the bonds issue programmes of various state undertakings on February 5 from A (so) to BB+(so).
Copyright © 2001 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.
