Luck seems to have run out for Bihar Chief Minister Laloo Prasad Yadav. It is only a question of time before he has to relinquish power, either voluntarily or under duress. In any case, his continuance in office has become extremely untenable after CBI chief Joginder Singh announced the investigating agency's decision to prosecute Yadav and a few of his comrades-in-fodder. Any self-respecting politician would have immediately put in his papers but not Yadav, who unabashedly nurses an ambition to rule the State from behind bars, which would be a record of sorts!

Yadav should really thank his stars for the fortuitous circumstances in which he could continue for over a year after the fodder scam shocked the nation out of its wits. The sheer size of the money defrauded -- Rs 950 crore, which means every Bihari, many of whom have never touched a hundred rupee note all their lives lost over Rs 100 each -- should have forced the media to turn the spotlight on the scam. Luckily for him, the hawala scandal had already engaged the attention of the nation although the money involved -- Rs 67 crore -- is peanuts compared to what the crooks in Bihar pocketed.

But then, hawala was a bigger story because of the involvement of several ranking politicians, representing a whole spectrum of political parties. This restricted in no small measure the Opposition's campaign against the Chief Minister. He made full use of the resultant confusion to have himself installed as president of the Janata Dal on the plea that S.R. Bommai could not hold the post because his name had figured in the infamous Jain diary.

The clever politician that Yadav is, he knew that such scandals would make little difference to the fortunes of a politician in a State where people of his ilk have in the past mortgaged the Patna Junction and the sprawling Gandhi Maidan to take huge bank loans that were never to be repaid. Seven long years in power were enough for him to know the ins and outs of administration and use them effectively to cover up the scandal. He had nearly succeeded in his bid when out of the blue the hyperactive judiciary sensed what he was up to and stopped him in his tracks.

For once, Yadav was in a no-win situation. If he were to plead that the fraudulent transactions preceded him as Chief Minister, it would have spoken volumes for his incompetence. On the contrary, if he admitted knowledge about the scandal, it was tantamount to admitting his guilt. Be that as it may, the situation has undergone a sea-change with the CBI, after elaborate investigation and interrogation of the Chief Minister, has found enough substance to proceed against him in a court of law. Far from seeing the writing on the wall, Yadav has been resorting to bluff and bluster to stay on in office. One day he would talk about rivers of blood his removal would cause to flow and, on another, he would threaten to pull down the United Front Government. It can verily be said that he rages like a cornered bully.

For a politician who always prided in his mass following, it is amusing that he has to pin all his hopes on Governor A.R. Kidwai's supposedly favourable bent of mind. As the law stands, prosecution of a Chief Minister has to await the prior sanction of his appointing authority, which is the head of the State. The procedure was built into the system to protect government functionaries from frivolous complaints that may arise in the discharge of their onerous duties. The idea was to free them from the bother of defending all their sundry actions in courts and other fora. To extend the hallowed privilege to those charged with committing as heinous a crime as fraud is a wanton misuse of the enabling provision. Clutching at the last straw, Yadav has sought refuge in the case that arose out of an attempt to prosecute then Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Jayalalitha and on which the Supreme Court has almost put a lid. Little does he realise that the two cases are poles apart in sum and substance. For instance, in the TN case, the sanction was sought by a private individual whereas in Bihar, it is an investigating agency, and that too acting on the orders of the High Court, that is seeking his prosecution.

As is his wont, Yadav threatens to take the issue to the people in the smug belief that they are at his beck and call. How far removed he is from reality was brought home when his hand-picked nominee for the Yadav-dominated Danapur Assembly seat, which he himself vacated, was badly mauled in last year's by-election. In fact, it is a sad commentary on his waning influence on the masses that he had to lure them with sarees and dhotis for the biggest-ever garib railla he organised some time ago. There is no disputing that he will eventually have to go to the people whether he is able to prove his innocence in the court or not.

Yadav is always hailed as the messiah of the poor. But have his seven years in power benefited the poor in any respect except in increasing their number as reflected in the burgeoning size of the yearly garib rallies? It is true that his track record is no worse or better than that of any of the worthies who held the post of Chief Minister during the last few decades.

But unlike many of them who were there purely at the mercy of those who reigned in Delhi, he had no such constraints. Perhaps, no other leader save Dr Srikrishna Sinha enjoyed as much freedom as he in shaping the destiny of the State. Yet, he could do precious little to improve the lot of the poor.

Instead of attending to the mundane needs of governance, he has been indulging in such cheap gimmicks as promising every rickshaw-puller a Maruti van to ferry his passengers and picking up a beggar from the streets to give him a much-needed bath and a five-course dinner at a five star hotel in Patna. Fortunately for the beggar, he did not throw away his begging bowl which continues to be his only source of sustenance.

All along, the State had to pay dearly for his buffoonery. Industry after industry has closed shop with not a single MW of power having been added to the installed capacity during his tenure. Yadav's visits to the US, Britain and Singapore have not brought a single dollar's worth of foreign investment. The law and order machinery is in a shambles with the state having already withered away in parts of Central Bihar. The number of the poor killed at the hands of the police or the oppressive feudal forces during his regime is the highest ever. Yet, he has the cheek to claim that gawala is all a conspiracy against the poor.

Copyright © 1997 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.