Politics in India is not difficult to predict. The situations are. It was known for some time that the Bharatiya Janata Party and Congress, which saw a mid-term poll round the corner, would start preparing. But it was not clear how they would go about it. L. K. Advani's rath yatra and Sonia Gandhi's membership of Congress are the respective cards the two parties have played. They have created the circumstances which they hope will influence the voters.

Advani started differently. It was a Janadesh Yatra. He wanted to rekindle the national sentiment that the struggle for independence had once evoked. Probably, he realised that the freedom part would not stick since the RSS, the BJP's mentor, had played no role in the movement against the British. Probably, he also came to terms with the party's image of Hindutva.

No wonder, Advani switched over to Mandir within 48 hours. This was the plank the BJP had adopted to polarise the society in 1990 when Advani had left a trial of hatred and animosity wherever his rath traversed in northern India.

It is apparent that the BJP is trying to evoke similar sentiments in the south. Advani has announced that his party, if and when it came to power at the Centre, would build a temple at the place where Babri Masjid stood before demolition. And as if he is not expecting a favourable verdict, he has said that such matters are not decided by courts of law.

So far the BJP has drawn more or less blankbeyond the Vindhyas. The induction of religion has not appealed to Hindus. The party exists only in name in Kerala and Tamil Nadu. It polled more than 28 per cent votes in Karnataka at one time but was down 13 per cent in the last election.

Will the BJP fare well in Andhra Pradesh by joining hands with NTR's widow Parvati? It may do marginally better. But the South on the whole still considers the BJP an embodiment of unaccommodating Hindi and the North's chauvinism.

Even the claim to protect cows, a BJP slogan, has not impressed Hindus, either in the North or in the South where the reverence is deeper. The party's lip sympathy is beginning to be known. Regarding integrity also, the BJP will have to do a lot of explaining. Advani has been exonerated by the Delhi High Court due to lack of evidence in the Hawala case.

But the Supreme Court is yet to give its judgment on the case. The CBI may not lodge an appeal against the High Court's decision but a public interest petition, pending before the Supreme Court, will reopen the case. Till that is disposed off, Advani does not have a clean chit.

Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh, where the BJP was once in power, still reverberate with discussions on the party's acts of omission and commission. The reputation of governments in Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra, where the BJP has its ministers, remains much to be desired.

All this has not added lustre to the BJP. The party has reached a plateau. It has exploited Hinduism to the maximum. The South is still distant. It may gain a few seats in the Hindi-speaking States. But the total number may still not be beyond 170 in the 546-member Lok Sabha (the BJP's present strength is 162). The rath yatra may turn out to be as tepid as it was at the outset.

The formal entry of Sonia into Congress is meant to have a person who is a crowd-puller. The party's experience so far has been unhappy. Not many people turn up at Congress meetings. There is no doubt, Sonia (now Soniaji) will pull crowds.

But it is difficult to predict whether she can convert them into voters. As a top Congress leader has said: ``Sonia is like a cartridge, which we can use only once, but it is not certain whether it would hit the target when fired.''

The problem with the Congress is that of image. Narsimha Rao has embossed on the party a stamp of corruption, which will not be easy to erase. With the name of an Italian who had close association with the Gandhi family when he was in Delhi as a business representative figuring among the recepients of Bofors kickbacks, it is difficult to imagine that Sonia will be able to counter attacks against corruption. Rajiv Gandhi's own name is on the list of the accused that the CBI has submitted. She is the one who is supposed to clear him.

Sonia's other drawback is her Italian origin. The BJP may revive its old slogan: Rome Raj Vs. Ram Raj. The way she has conducted after Rajiv Gandhi's death has endeared her to the people, who see her posturing like a typical Indian widow. But by jumping into the political arena, she has somewhat erased the mystique. But the party has no alternative.

Personalities-driven as Congress is, it is oblivious of its ideological past. And until the party goes back to its ideological ethos, it may fail to retrieve the lost ground. Sonia cannot be a substitute for ideology which once infused life into the party. There is hardly any leader who can do so. Congress, it seems, has decided to fall back on the dynasty.

Thus the BJP and Congress have created two different situations. Both are shrewd and calculated. It is politics on predictable lines, both partes employing the best weapon they have in their arsenal. The United Front can foil their strategy and make inroads into their territory or the one they are trying to occupy.

But the Front has to give a message of cleanliness. It is not possible as long as Bihar Chief Minister Laloo Prasad Yadav is in the saddle. And the Front should at least look coherent. What is the message when the Working President of the Janata Dal does not allow its prime minister to speak in the Lok Sabha?

The Front will be tottering if it does not realise the simple fact that sabotage from within is suicidal for its survival. Ultimately, it has to enlarge its platform which can attack liberals, human rights activists, and the Gandhiites, who at present are disappointed over the developments. In Gujral they find a person with whom they can communicate.

Maybe, such elements will take time to coalesce because they hate casteism. They also find the front is slow in its action against the corrupt. The brutalities of the administration too have not abated. But if the country has to be rescued for the pursuit of values, there has to be a force which is humane and secular.

Both the BJP and the Congress have begun their journey towards polling booths. The Front has yet to plan its strategy, particularly on how to win over liberal forces.

Copyright © 1997 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.