The morning newspapers arrive in Kerala these days with the statistics trotted out by the State Electricity Board about the critical water level in the reservoirs of the State's hydro-electric projects perched in the High Ranges.

For the moment, the water level in the reservoir seems to interest the local readers more than the antics of a Sitaram Kesri or a Laloo Prasad Yadav. Because, the storage position in the reservoirs has a great bearing on the day-to-day lives of the 3 crore people of the State. As the water level comes down, the duration of the powercut imposed by the Government goes up. And an empty reservoir could spell total blackout.

The Kerala State Electricity Board's (KSEB) daily news bulletin cautions people about the day's variations in the water level in reservoirs, how much water has additionally flown into them, for how many days the power that could be produced with the available water would last and so on.

To quote the bulletin issued by the Board on June 19: ``The water level in the reservoirs is receding at an alarming rate. For the past two days, the catchment areas have not received any rain and the flow of water into the reservoir has virtually ceased. The water in all the reservoirs put together is sufficient to generate only 140 million units, that is, just enough to meet the needs for the next seven days at the present rate of consumption of roughly 20 MU (million units). Consumers may co-operate with the Board in reducing consumption. Use only one or two lamps for your emergency needs.''

The Board's warning, in simple terms, means that if the delayed monsoon does not set in over Kerala within the next one week, the entire State would be plunged into darkness. Such alarm signals emanating from the Electricity Board are disturbing enough to cause sleepless nights to the local populace.

Even if monsoon sets in, it won't make any difference to the water level in the reservoirs unless their catchment areas get copious rain. The extent of the problem can be gauged from the fact that while the storage capacity of the reservoirs of nine major hydro-electric power projects in the State put together is equivalent to 3,626 MUs of power, their present storage is reduced to only 140 million lakh units. The water level in the Idukki project has plummetted to an all-time low of 1.76 per cent of its total capacity.

Chief Minister E.K. Nayanar and his Power Minister Pinarayi Vijayan could not have chosen a worse time to embark on a foreign jaunt. They took off for Canada after imposing a hundred-per cent powercut for industries in the State. After their departure, many factories downed shutters and the flow of water into reservoirs was reduced to a trickle. Opposition leaders such as A.K. Antony demanded the Chief Minister's sudden return from the foreign soil to manage the crisis on the power front.

But the ruling party leaders responded with a counter query: ``If the Ministers come back, will their tears well up the reservoirs?''The journey undertaken by three other Ministers -- Finance Minister T. Sivadasa Menon, Irrigation Minister Baby John and Food and Civil Supplies Minister E. Chandrasekharan Nair -- to Tamil Nadu some cheers to Kerala in the form of 2.4 MUs of power from the neighbouring State.

But the political cost that Kerala may have to pay for drawing Tamil Nadu's power would be much higher than the commercial tariff demanded by the State. Already there is a running dispute between Tamil Nadu and Kerala on the question of diversion of water from Kerala's Periyar river for irrigation and power generation in Tamil Nadu through the Mullaperiyar Dam. Kerala would now be obliged to relent from its known position on the issue in favour of Tamil Nadu as a quid pro quo for drawing Tamil Nadu's power in this hour of crisis.

To take advantage of Kerala's present predicament and its desperate dependence on Tamil Nadu for power, some organisations in Tamil Nadu, such as the Tamil Manila Congress, have made more demands on Kerala to divert more west-flowing rivers in Kerala to Tamil Nadu.

To add an element of comedy to the way the power crisis is handled by the Government, while vigorously lobbying for allocation of more power from the Central pool, little did the Chief Minister or his Power Minister know that the existing transmission lines do not have the carrying capacity to bring in more power from the Central pool or neighbouring States. They cannot carry more than the 13 MU which the State is already importing.

Even the newly re-opened Udumalpet-Idukki 120 kv inter-State feeder line, through which Kerala is drawing 2.4 MU power sanctioned by Tamil Nadu, cannot bring in more power even if Tamil Nadu were willing to increase its share, according to KSEB sources.

Kerala's precarious power scenario is the creation of long years of neglect and the lack of far-sightedness and commitment on the part of the political leadership. Kerala was a surplus State in power availability after the commissioning of the Idukki hydro-electric power project in 1976. It even now accounts for nearly half of Kerala's power generating capacity.

But no major power project has come through in Kerala after the Idukki project. The only major hydel project under implementation is the Lower Periyar scheme, but this would add no more than 180 MW of power against a demand-supply gap of nearly 1,300 MW envisaged by the year 2000. The total installed capacity of Kerala's 13 hydro-electric power projects is put at 1,516 MW against the present requirement of 2,400 MW. The projected requirement by the year 2000 is 2800 MW.

Kerala, with its 44 rivers, has till now exploited only a fraction of its potential hydel power generating capacity. Kerala lost the ambitious Silent Valley project in the face of opposition from the environment brigade and is now on the verge of losing yet another project, Pooyamkutty (240 MW), against which several petitions filed by environmentalists are pending in the Supreme Court.

Kerala erred in not going in for any alternative sources of energy other than hydel power, primarily in view of the comparatively high production cost of non-hydel power.

The only exception is the 100 MW Brahmapuram diesel power plant, but only one of the five 20 MW generators of this plant has been commissioned yet.Ever since the State Government decided to throw open the power generation sector to private participation around 1992, MoUs and PPAs (Power Purchase Agreements) for generation of a total of about 4,000 MW have been signed. But these projects largely remain on paper and not a unit of power has flown out of any of them.

With no power, the Government's programmes for accelerating industrialisation in the State would necessarily have to take a back seat. The much-hyped Kerala model of development, where the State's impressive Physical Quality of Life Index is not supported by a sound industrial base, remains an enigma to economists.

Incidentally, the power shortage is the first major crisis being faced by the Nayanar Government, now into its second year in power. The Government, caught between an elusive monsoon and a helpless electricity Board, is besieged by attacks from all quarters for the declared and undeclared power cuts. The truant rain gods seem to be playing the role of an Opposition far more effectively than the sparring Congress leaders.

Copyright © 1997 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.