As the nation prepares to celebrate the fiftieth anniversary of its independence, little thought is being given to the fact that it is also the fiftieth anniversary of the first of its three wars with Pakistan. On October 27, 1947, Indian troops were airlifted to Srinagar to prevent Pathan tribesmen sponsored by Pakistan from overrunning the whole of Jammu and Kashmir. In the preceding five days these marauding Pathans had raped, looted and pillaged their way to the outskirts of Srinagar. When the first Indian troops landed, Srinagar airfield had already come under their fire. Before the invaders could be pushed back fully, winter set in. When the offensive resumed the following summer and just as Indian troops were on the verge of pushing them out completely from the Poonch sector in May 1948, the Pakistani army formally entered the fray. It has been that way since then.

It seems that the conflict over Jammu and Kashmir has come full circle. The insurgency that flared up in 1990 has now entered a new phase. The role of the Kashmiri militant in it has now reduced considerably. Most of the young men from the state who took to arms have either been killed or have surrendered. Many others have given up the gun and have quietly rejoined the mainstream. Today a majority of the militants are outsiders. To this extent it is now less of an insurgency and more of an invasion just like that of 1947.

In the southern part of the Valley where the militants were most active, the number of militants killed dropped from a peak of 613 in 1994 to 198 last year. So far this year 83 were killed. The numbers apprehended or surrendering have dropped likewise. There has been no let-up in the pressure by the security forces. While this suggests that militancy is waning, it does not mean that the causes of alienation have been addressed.

The Valley is now a very different place than it was just a couple of years ago. The air of palpable tension has given way to a more relaxed mood. There is a visible prosperity all over the Valley that is now evident in most parts of the country. This obviously owes a great deal to the huge sums of money poured into the state ever since 1990. For the past seven years there has been no audit of the state's accounts and the leakage of funds is widely believed to have acquired monumental proportions. If the tourists were not missing one could think that normalcy has been restored. Like in others areas afflicted by insurgency. This unregulated flow of funds creates a new set of dynamics. A good part of the money ostensibly meant to develop the state finds its way into the hands of the insurgents. So the state ends up supporting the insurgency it is fighting. We must now ponder over the hard reality that we may be providing much more money to the militants than the ISI. Clearly good governance is the answer. Unfortunately it would seem that the Farooq government has not been able to build on the gains made by the security forces.

Corruption continues to thrive. The Army has some interesting figures available that highlight this. For instance the cost of repair of a 75 kva generator lying idle in Baramulla was estimated by the concerned state government department to be Rs 1.5 lakhs. When the Army took up the job as a part of its civic action programme it found that the repairs only cost a mere Rs 86. The cost estimated to repair an idle municipal truck in Baramulla was Rs 90,000. It cost the Army Rs 150. The state government estimated the cost of constructing a bridge over the Vishav river at Brazul in Kulgam to be Rs. 64 lakh and required one year for it. It was constructed by the Rashtriya Rifles with the help of local people for less than Rs 1 lakh and the job was completed in 59 days.

The real problem in the state is the Farooq Abdullah government. Many in his cabinet are suspected to be in cahoots with militant groups. The Chief Minister's bureaucratic advisors are generally considered to be inept or with serious attitudinal problems. His principal secretary is the person who went on leave rather than organise the Amarnath Yatra as ordered by the Governor. It is our misfortune that without Farooq Abdullah there can be no popular government, and with Farooq Abdullah there can be no good government.

Copyright © 1997 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.