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The Naga solution?
The meeting of former Principal Secretary to the Prime Minister, Satish
Chandran, and several senior Intelligence Bureau (IB) officials with leaders
of the banned National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-M) in Geneva last
month may result in an agreement based on limited autonomy to Nagaland.
The Naga leaders, in response, seem to have put on hold their demand for
secession. The meeting, which was part of a series of ongoing negotiations,
was held with T. Muivah and Isak Chisi Swu, the leaders of the NSCN(M).
While officially a tight-lipped silence is being maintained on the issues
discussed and the agenda for negotiations, the Government as well as the
NSCN are sanguine about the outcome. The official policy of tiring the
movement out while keeping negotiations open now seems to have yielded some
short-term benefits. The fact that the NSCN is negotiating at all, despite
knowing the limitations of the agenda, is something of a breakthrough
according to the official line.
Chandran, who led the negotiations -- described as ``unofficial dialogue''
-- has since retired from the PMO. Official sources say that he was
reluctant to hold the meeting but was persuaded by Prime Minister I.K.
Gujral to go for the ``sake of continuity''. A piquant situation has been
created now, since the IB, which is responsible for opening the channel of
communication with the NSCN, being not the only party speaking to them.
Normally, the handling of the matter should have passed on to the Ministry
of Home Affairs, but the PMO is keen to have a hands-on control of the
negotiations.
The matter will now be handled by former Home Secretary and currently
Principal Secretary to the Prime Minister, N.N. Vohra. Since former prime
minister H.D. Deve Gowda had initiated the process of dialogue, it has
become a prestige issue for the current incumbents of the PMO. The spin
doctors within the office also perceive talks as a winning issue. It is also
one of the reasons why the Government is going slow on investigations into
Nagaland Industries Minister K. Hollohon's alleged links with both the
factions of the NSCN.
The Government delegation is learnt to have discussed the demand for Greater
Nagaland put forward by the NSCN, which would comprise parts of Arunachal
Pradesh, Assam and other States bordering Nagaland. Senior officials say
that any concession involving redrawing of territory can only follow an
all-party consensus policy decision at the political level. They say that
while the meetings are important to discuss the volatile issue, actual
progress can only be made if the ambit of negotiations is broadened. And
also, it is impossible to keep the channels of discussion open if even
crumbs are not offered.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had already warned the Government not to
hold unconditional talks with the militants. The BJP President, L. K.
Advani, maintains that while negotiations are welcome they have to be done
within well-defined parameters. This makes concessions even within the
Greater Nagaland framework difficult. The accepted political view was to
give ``ample concessions'' in the current boundaries and ``relative
autonomy'' within the boundaries. This seems to have found wide
acceptability across the political spectrum. With a fragile coalition at the
Centre, the prospect of going beyond the formulae is unlikely.
But even the concession of a limited Greater Nagaland will spark widespread
protest from the affected States. The only possible solution can be that
given the current disarray in the NSCN, the Government can capitalise on the
fatigue within the movement and ensure that a deal is chalked out in the
shape of limited autonomy within the current boundaries of Nagaland. The
Assam accord may well provide the blue-print for a future settlement based
on limited autonomy with some additional concessions. The Government has
already indicated to the NSCN that it is not prepared to go further than
this.
Since the NSCN leaders are aware of the ground reality, they seem to have
tacitly accepted the fact that boundary concessions will not happen. This
does imply that the movement has come to the conclusion that sovereignty may
be an unrealisable goal. After the meeting in Switzerland the NSCN also
called it a ``positive development'' which is being viewed as a signal to
the movement on the ground and a fillip to go ahead with further
negotiations.
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