NEW DELHI, Aug 25: While higher industrial growth figures will clearly help boost sentiments in the country, statistical manipulation of numbers just isn't on. That, unfortunately, is something which the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) appears to be indulging in as far as its latest figures on industrial production are concerned.

Interestingly, when earlier this year, the CSO had revised the GDP growth figures very sharply upwards, it attracted similar criticism (The Indian Express, January 30). A summary of the current inaccuracies in the CSO's numbers for the index of industrial production (IIP) can be found in the latest issue of the monthly review of the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE).

The CSO's figures show that the IIP rose by a robust 9.8 per cent in April, led by a hike of 19 per cent in capital goods, 12 per cent in basic goods, 7 per cent for intermediate goods, and 14 per cent for consumer durables. Much of this, according to CMIE, is suspect, as the private sector bodies in these industries do not report figures which are even remotely similar. Let's take a few samples of the discrepancies.

* Within the capital goods sector, according to the CSO, electrical machinery (which has a weightage of 5.8 per cent in the IIP) grew by 25 per cent in April. Yet, according to the IEEMA which is the association for this sector, production for industries with a smaller weight of 3.19 per cent in the IIP actually fell by 21 per cent.

* Transport equipment (weight of 6.4 per cent in the IIP) grew by 15.7 per cent in April according to CSO. Yet, the statistics from the Automobile Association of India show a decline of 3.7 per cent in the same month.* Basic metals, according to the CSO, increased by 47 per cent.

Yet, according to the Joint Plant Committee, there was a 4 per cent fall in production of finished steel and a 12.5 per cent decline in output of pig iron. Aluminium production did rise, but only by 15 per cent.

Copyright © 1997 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.