PUNE, Dec 9: Ending its period of dormancy, after Indian meteorologists had outright denied any influence on the Indian monsoon, the El Nino factor finally seems to have made a rejuvenated comeback baffling the country's experts.

Speaking to The Indian Express Dr G B Pant, Director, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, said that although the spells of rain cannot be described as an unusual phenomenon, one could not rule out the role of El Nino factor, particularly in non-conventional rain zones which do not receive winter rains effected by North East Monsoon during this period. Though, he confessed to the lack of an extensive study of El Nino, requiring surface temperature data over a large area of its influence, making it difficult pin point the affects.

However, D S Desai, Director (Weather Forecast) India Meteorology Department, Pune, says that a similar "unusual" spell was observed in January 1995. One possible reason for the rain, he said, is the cyclonic circulation over Rajasthan and a low-pressure area over south-east Arabian sea.

Experts may be baffled but farmers are at the recieving end. Heavy rains for four days in succession followed by a hailstorm on the fifth in different parts of Wardha district in Maharashtra hit the rabi crops, causing damage to the tune of Rs five crore. On December 3, heavy rainfall was recorded in different tehsils.

Ironically, when farmers, already hit by a bad kharif crop, were anxious of wilting of paddy in October due to paucity of rains, their produce was affected by excessive rains and hailstorm in the months of October, November and December. Crop damages were reported from Esamba, Erangaon, Barbadi, Bhurgaon, Chitoda, Dahegaon, Goji, Ambal, Tigaon, Rodha and Waifad.

Bleak forecast for rabi season

* The Agrometry division of the India Meteorology Department, Pune, has painted a grim picture of both kharif and rabi crops in the country in the wake of unusual rains during last few days. Dr M R Das, Deputy Director General of Meteorology (Agrimet), said that the unseasonal rains have not harmed the standing kharif crops in different parts of country, but has, at the same time, adversely affected rabi sowing. Standing Kharif crops have been badly hit in northern and eastern parts of the country, said Dr Das, adding that Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra were the main affected, with cotton and grapes in the latter state suffering the most.

Copyright © 1997 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.