Even if there is really no "third force" in Maharashtra, only a divided front of parties, this is an entity that stands between the ruling Shiv Sena-BJP combine and the Congress.

Nowhere was this more apparent than in the 1996 Lok Sabha elections at which the "third force" drew a blank. Yet it destroyed Congress chances of a victory in at least 22 of the 48 constituencies in Maharashtra.

For many Congress candidates, their losing margin was almost equal to the votes polled by the "third force" candidates.

It was a lesson driven home. The Congress is now spearheading a move to secure a "secular" combine. The early legwork towards this began hours after the dissolution of the Lok Sabha became apparent. The normally indolent Congress appears to have had a headstart, with the Maharashtra Pradesh Congress Committee's tours of different regions in October and November.

According to Sharad Pawar, the Congress lost at least 22 seats in 1996 because it failed to see in time the burgeoning support for parties like Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party and the united Republican Party of India.

The 1996 results showed that non-Congress parties drew 12 per cent of the vote, the Congress 36 per cent, while the Sena-BJP garnered 38 per cent. This time the Congress hopes to clean up 36 seats in Maharashtra.

Even if there are no formal alliances, individual adjustments are in the offing. Mulayam Singh is likely to ignore pressure from the United Front to stay away from the Congress. And the Janata Dal, which has little presence here, has decided to field candidates in only a limited number of seats, hoping that these will remain uncontested by the Congress.

The SP's State unit is already negotiating with the Congress, which has given it one seat in the State Legislative Council, and is amenable to giving away half-a-dozen seats to both the SP and the RPI.

The mood is definitely optimistic. Vasant Chavan, one of the two MPCC spokesmen, says: "Do not forget that this time we are going to the polls with several friends on our side. Last time we were completely isolated."

The Sena-BJP combine, on the other hand, should have less trouble in sharing seats. However, the two allies have recently been suffering from their own contradictions. Sena leaders believe that the BJP is playing an obstructionist role in areas where it has a very weak base, as in Vidarbha. Moreover, Thackeray's supremacy arises from the fact that his party leads a Government. Political observers believe he has no wish to see the balance of power shift with a BJP-led Government at the Centre.

The Sena and the BJP also realise that they have made a good showing only because of the division in the secular vote and infighting in the Congress. While bickerings over Congress tickets are still likely, the alliance has only itself to blame if inner-party rebellion is subdued this time.

For both of them have surpassed each other in luring Congress rebels. Ratnakar Mahajan, the other MPCC spokesman, crows that all these rebels are troublemakers with only disruptive potential. However, it is the consolidation of the Dalit and Muslim vote that really worries the Sena-BJP. The State Government's handling of the incidents following the desecration of Babasaheb Ambedkar's statue in July has changed the complexion of Dalit politics. The Buddhist Dalits, spread between various RPI factions, far outnumber the Hindus and are being wooed assiduously by the Sena-BJP alliance.

The feeling is such that Prakash Ambedkar, B R Ambedkar's grandson -- who has been accused in the past of being soft on the BJP -- offered to help secular parties. And both the Congress and other factions of the RPI are willing to negotiate with him.

The Sena, meanwhile, is setting out to woo the Buddhist Dalits by backing legendary Dalit storm-trooper Namdeo Dhasal, who is attempting to revive his fading magic by regrouping the Dalit Panthers. The Sena hopes some of his spunk will help breach the Congress bastion in Pune where all three parliamentary constituencies (Pune, Khed and Baramati) are with the Congress, Dhasal having failed against Suresh Kalmadi last time.

As for the Muslims, Thackeray's earlier conciliatory efforts seems to be paying dividends. The community was said to be impressed at the Government's efforts in ensuring that a three-day religious gathering last month was a success. How far that competes with Mulayam's messianic status remains to be seen.

Meanwhile, BJP city unit president Kirit Somaiyya hopes the shifting nature of relationships between UF constituents and the Congress will help draw people towards the BJP. "We have only one prime ministerial candidate -- Atal Behari Vajpayee. They have several. So we will certainly sweep as many as 40 seats. We might even get all 48."

And Chief Minister Manohar Joshi says, "If every party's claims were to come true, then Maharashtra should surely have at least 100 seats!" He, of course, hopes to win only 48.

Copyright © 1997 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.