In the absence of a wave and even polarisation between parties in Rajasthan, there is little to choose between the two main contenders -- the ruling BJPand the Congress. Local issues, suitability of candidates, even basic election management may then decide the winner this time round in the Lok Sabha elections here.Other formations count for little, their effect limited to the difference they can make to the outcome. The Congress and the BJP have an almost neck-and-neck race. In the last elections, each had bagged 12 of the 25 Lok Sabha seats, with one going to the Congress(T). Later, the BJP had wrested one seat from the Congress after the by-election in Nagaur, which was necessitated by Nathu Ram Mirdha's death.
Beset by problems, neither has since gained much. And the fight this time will be largely negative, with each party stressing on the other's shortcomings. Interestingly, despite the dominance of the two parties, there is no polarisation between them. Both the Congress and the BJP have almost
the same platform and share similar ``concerns'', their differences confined to party interests. In such circumstances, caste is likely to dominate the political agenda. In 1996 too, the voting pattern had been along these lines. However, unlike other States, caste affiliations are not party-based here, except in the case of minorities and to some extent, the OBCs.
The BJP, despite having a master manipulator like Chief Minister Bhairon Singh Shekhawat at its head, can expect trouble. Shekhawat has almost single-handedly destroyed the so-called third front in the State, climbing to power in both 1990 and 1993 on the ruins of a split Janata Dal. Recently, it managed to pull off victories in by-elections in the Congress' Jat strongholds.
These ``achievements'', however, haven't led to expansion of the party's political base or ideological appeal. Rather, a threat to the Shekhawat regime earlier this year by rebels has shaken faith in the party's slogan of ``vote for stability''. The party also has to
contend with the anti-incumbency factor.
On another front, the party cannot be sure of some of the seats it currently holds. Such as Bikaner, whose present MP is Mahendra Singh Bhati. He is the son of Devi Singh Bhati, who was forced to resign from the ministry following charges of thrashing an IAS officer. Bhati has enough influence to damage the BJP's prospects here.
Problems beset the party in its strongholds of Kota and Chittor also. In Chittor particularly, the problem is of factionalism. While the BJP MP from the seat, Jaswant Singh, is busier with ``national issues'', an MLA from the area is now in the rebel camp.
The Government also has to contend with the widespread industrial problems in the State. All the five central trade unions, including the Sangha Parivar's Bharatiya Mazdoor Sangha, have accused it of keeping minimum wages low, failing to look after workers' interests and favouring industrialists.The State Government's record on the law and order front, especially communal violence, was
tainted by the recent riots over a graveyard in Jaipur, leading to the death of six. The Government also alienated Muslims when it failed to renew the tenure of the Minorities Commission.
This may be one reason why Shekhawat has chosen not to hold the Assembly elections, which are due in November 1998, simultaneously with the Lok Sabha polls.
The Chief Minister, however, remains confident, insisting soon after the Lok Sabha elections were declared that the BJP would ask the people to vote for a stable government. Brushing aside the argument that ``this is the age of coalitions'', he says: ``A coalition is not the people's mandate, it is the leaders' arrangement.''
Shekhawat also blames the State's industrial problems on ``instability'' at the Centre and claims the BJP would increase its tally everywhere, including Rajasthan.
But if the BJP hasn't fared that well, the Congress has little to show against its own record. The party has not even been able to cash in on the Government's shortcomings --
including the near-rebellion in BJP ranks, several scams and the infamous Jaipur rape case -- except a few sporadic protests led by chief Ashok Gehlot in the Assembly. The party leaders' criticism, in fact, has mainly been targeted at their own colleagues. The Congress is also missing its crucial Jat vote bank, which seems to have switched loyalties to the BJP. Worse, the Jat leaders in the party have been openly complaining that they have been marginalised, and there have been rumours of a separate kisan front and even a merger with the BJP. Till now, the Congress has wielded considerable influence in the Jat areas, which include Nagaur, Bikaner, Ganganagar and Jhunjhunu.
The party is facing a threat on another flank: its Gujjar-dominated seats Dausa and Alwar. The Bahujan Samaj Party's Kanshi Ram has been wooing these and has been touring the area with State chief Jagat Singh Dayma. Luckily for the Congress, its political base hasn't been much affected as the people in the State have few choices. It even
won a majority of the panchayat seats in recent elections. Another bonus came when the breakaway Congress(T), which had eaten into its vote share last time, returned to the party fold.
The Congress, however, may fall short of translating this into votes. Though Gehlot says they would stress on the ``total non-performance of the Government'' and ``collapse of administration'', the assault may have come rather late in the day. Not so long ago, amid the furore over the Jaipur gangrape case, the party's leader of the Opposition in the Assembly, Parasram Maderna, had praised the Shekhawat Government, saying it had the best record in maintaining law and order.
Copyright © 1997 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.
