CALCUTTA, February 5: She waited for the two Imams to join her at the crowded press conference in the shed adjoining her modest home in Calcutta's down-market Kalighat. When they came, Mamata Banerjee sprang to her feet, forcefully making her point -- the Muslims were with her despite her making common cause with the BJP.Former Union minister Ajit Panja, who also left the Congress to join her Trinamool Congress (TC), had a different experience. After filing his nomination as a TC candidate from Calcutta Northeast, he went to test the waters at an Iftaar party. Panja got a rude shock when some Muslim leaders at the party told him they did not like Mamata's befriending the BJP.
Soon after, Mamata herself sprang a surprise on BJP workers who had come to attend one of her rallies in Cooch Behar in north Bengal. As jubilant saffron supporters waved party flags to cheer her, she cut them short, asking them to tuck the flags in their pockets.
As State BJP leaders fumed at her ``autocratic'' ways, Mamata madeamends by publicly acknowledging her party's seat adjustments with the saffron brigade.
Till the cloud was cleared, supporters of both parties were actually having a tough time. Mamata sang different tunes about her equations with the BJP. Now, at last, they could throw their weight behind each other. With the result that the polls in Bengal this time would be different from the past 20 years, when politics had been polarised between the Left and Congress. It is a triangular contest between the Left, the Congress and the TC-BJP now.
Even as the confusion prevailed, Mamata drew large crowds at her meetings. This has proved that she remains the most important rallying point for all anti-Marxist forces in the State. Significantly, Muslims too came in droves, and even CPI(M) supporters because she has long remained at the centre of political talk and action in West Bengal. She also seems to have bridged the rural-urban divide.
But the refrain in all poll talk in the State is: won't she, after all, split theanti-CPI(M) vote and thereby make the passage smoother for her bete noire, the Marxists? ``Almost certainly she will,'' says CPI(M) central committee member Biman Bose. ``But we are constantly warning our cadre against being complacent on this count.''
The public posturing apart, CPI(M) candidates in many places are hoping to cash in on the split in anti-Left votes. Among the hopefuls is Prasanta Sur, the Marxist candidate against Mamata in South Calcutta.
The Trinamool leader, however, maintains that she, along with the BJP, would be able to carry away most of the anti-CPI(M) votes, reducing the Congress to the third position.
But the electoral arithmetic tells a different story. Although out of power in the State for 21 years now, the Congress has maintained an average of 40 per cent of the total votes in West Bengal.
In 1996, when the State had simultaneous assembly and Lok Sabha polls, the party polled 39.69 per cent votes, which was 3 per cent more than what it had got in 1991.
Interestingly,the Left's share of votes also rose in 1996, though by less than 1 per cent. But its seats in the Assembly came down from 245 to 203.
A substantial part of the Congress's gain in 1996 was at the cost of the BJP, whose share dropped to 6.45 per cent in 1996 from 11.36 in 1991. But 1991 had been the year of the BJP throughout the country. And West Bengal had responded by giving the party almost a windfall, considering that its share in 1989 had been less than one per cent.
Party leaders are hopeful that West Bengal will again respond to a ``national trend''. Add to this the advantage of being Mamata's ally and the BJP looks set to improve its position in the State.
But, for all this enthusiasm and optimism, Mamata cannot hope to take away most of the Congress votes. A large portion of the latter's vote bank will remain intact, with or without Sonia Gandhi.
The TC and BJP together can notch up more votes than the Congress. But that will not be enough to fulfil her ambition -- to ``save Bengal'' from theMarxists.
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.
