SAMBHAL, February 13: Ladies and gentlemen! Welcome to the prize fight of the year. In the red corner is Mulayam Singh Yadav, ex-wrestler, Samajwadi Party heavyweight and Prime Minister-aspirant. In the blue corner, lean and hungry is Dharam Pal Yadav, variously described as a mafia-don, Robin Hood and, unarguably, the biggest chameleon in Indian politics.As prize fights go, this one is bare-knuckled. "Dalbadlu? Who, me? Ha! Mulayam has changed his constituencies nine times so far," DP sneers. Just for the record, DP has changed parties thrice -- BSP to SP to BJP symbol now -- in the last 40 days. Drawing himself to his full height (around 6 feet), the BJP candidate in Sambhal tells a public rally: "I built up Mulayam as chief minister (of Uttar Pradesh) with the strength of these arms."
Mulayam has, in the run up to the February 22 poll, visited the constituency just once so far. It was a whistle-stop trip, descending on Sambhal's dusty plains in a helicopter and zooming in a motorcade through afew handpicked destinations in the constituency. As the self-appointed custodian of secularism, particularly in India's largest state, time is a scarce commodity for Mulayam. When he was here on February 7, he told his supporters that he would return only to take part in his victory celebrations. Current indications are that while victory could well be his, it will not be a cakewalk as many believe.
Sambhal has been declared a hypersensitive constituency. Earlier this week, paramilitary forces had to stage a flag march here. Moradabad district collector Deepak Trivedi told The Indian Express that the administration had begun taking possession of licensed guns for the duration of the poll process here. Some 5,000 people have been told to provide bonds backed by sureties for good behaviour during the polls. Such is the paranoia in this high-profile constituency, cut-outs of the candidates have been brought down, lest they "inspire" unruly elements.
The BJP has pulled out all stops to bring Mulayam tohis knees. Mulayam shifted here from Mainpuri in the hope of finding a safe haven in a constituency which has 25 per cent Muslims and 22 per cent Yadavs. (Mainpuri had become dicey with the BJP deciding to field Ashok Yadav).
Though the Muslims are with Mulayam in Sambhal, the Yadavs are expected to get divided. There are two sub castes among the Yadavs -- the Kumhariyas (like Mulayam) and the Ghosis (like DP), who are in the majority. Besides the Yadav factor, Mulayam has also to contend with Mayawati. The BSP candidate in Sambhal, Budh Sen, commands a sizable support of his own community, the Khagis (a small OBC caste numbering around one lakh) and of Jatavs, around 1.5 lakhs. Since he is not in a position to win himself, `Behenji' (Mayawati) might facilitate the transfer of their votes to the BJP at the last moment. Her interest is not Sambhal or the BJP or even the vote-share of the BSP: it is to emerge as number two (after the BJP) in UP. And that can only happen if Mulayam is vanquished. Mulayam'simage builders have harped on the fact that he could realistically hope to be Prime Minister. Sambhal becomes a ghost town at night because of acute power shortage. The prime ministerial candidate card is therefore a big draw, particularly because people here believe that Mulayam could do for Sambhal what the Gandhi family did for Amethi.
Apart from support from Muslims and Yadavs, the buzz here is that even some upper castes might vote for him. In this western UP badland, kidnappings and extortions are commonplace and it is not uncommon for people to attribute them to DP Yadav and his henchmen.
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.
