NEW DELHI, February 23: The economic slowdown has now been officially confirmed to be worse than anticipated earlier. The latest "advance" estimates put out by the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) put the GDP growth figure at just five per cent for 1997-98, well below even the six per cent forecast by the RBI last December.The slowdown is mainly on account of the expected decline in agriculture, forestry and fishing and the deceleration being witnessed in several other sectors of the industry. With this reduction in the growth forecast, the current fiscal - the year of the "dream" budget - will register the lowest growth in the last five years.
According to the CSO's estimates, GDP at factor cost at constant (1980-81) prices is likely to attain a level of Rs 3,11,828 crore in 1997-98 as compared to quick estimates of Rs 2,96,845 crore for the previous fiscal.
The biggest disappointment, according to the estimates, will be in the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector. This segment is estimatedto record a negative growth rate of 2% as compared to a high growth rate of 7.9% in the previous financial year.
Manufacturing is also likely to fare poorly. The growth rate in this sector is expected to decelerate to 6.1% from 7.4% in the previous financial year. A deceleration will also be witnessed in the construction sector. The growth rate is likely to be only 3.2% as compared to 5.2% in 1996-97. Trade, hotels, transport and communication will also witness low growth rate of 5.9% as compared to 8.6% in the previous year.
The sector which was likely to do well was mining and quarrying. Having recorded a negative growth of (-) 0.3%, the growth rate was likely to go up to 6.3%. Also, the growth rate in the electricity, gas and water supply segment was estimated to move up to 6.4% from 5% in 1996-97. Similarly, in the case of financing, insurance, real estate and business services, the growth rate was likely to accelerate to 9.5% as compared to 8.7% in the previous fiscal.
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.
