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The rightful claimant
If any party can claim to have the mandate to form a government at the Centre, it is the Bharatiya Janata Party. It has not only emerged as the single largest party but, together with its allies, it needs the support of a little less than 30 more MPs whereas the next party, the Congress, requires thrice that number. Therefore, any attempt by any other party to form a government will be a negation of the people's mandate. In the given situation, the President has no option but to invite the BJP to form a government. While it is for the BJP to find the new supporters who can keep it in power, the party cannot lose sight of the fact that its performance in the just-concluded elections has not been all that spectacular. The party mainly has its regional allies to thank for its present achievement. As a single party, it has improved its position only by about a dozen seats. It is indeed doubtful whether it could have got those extra seats without its spectacular piggyback ride in Tamil Nadu, West Bengal,Punjab, Orissa and, to a lesser extent, in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. In fact, in states like Rajasthan and Maharashtra where the party has been in power, it suffered a major setback but for which it would have got an absolute majority in the 12th Lok Sabha. This conforms to the party's tradition of never winning a second time in succession in a state. Even in Uttar Pradesh, where the situation was ideal for the BJP to sweep the polls because of the likely split in anti-BJP votes, it just managed to maintain its 1996 tally. The implication of the verdict is that the BJP has little to gloat over. A lesson that can safely be drawn from the verdict is that the voters' mandate is not exactly for the BJP's election manifesto. For instance, on the contentious issues of Mandir, Article 370 and a uniform civil code, the BJP and some of its allies like the AIADMK, the Samata Party, the Trinamool Congress and the Akali Dal have contradictory viewpoints. Some of them, like the AIADMK, have even asked the BJP to putsuch issues on the back burner in order to get on with the job of providing a stable government. Besides, one of its traditional allies, the Samata Party, has insisted on a common minimum programme to enable the party to join a BJP-led government. Thus the BJP will not be in a position to pursue any of its distinctive manifesto-related programmes that will set it apart from the rest of the political spectrum. That it is capable of doing so was proved during its 13-day regime in 1996 when it did not refer to any of these vexing issues.The BJP's success will depend to a large extent on how it is able to work with its allies. For the present, the preeminent party has two options. It can either follow the Uttar Pradesh pattern to prove its majority or win the confidence of a large section of the people by providing a clean and effective government. The drubbing it received in Rajasthan and Maharashtra should serve as a warning that the people cannot be taken for granted. They will be watching with bated breathto see how it cobbles together a workable majority. The methods it employs for this purpose will have a bearing on the kind of government it provides to the nation. On that hinges its government's success and longevity. Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.
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