The best way for India to defeat Islamabad's plans is not to do the obvious and allow itself to be provoked. To fire the Ghauri at this point in time is so transparently an attempt to test reaction in New Delhi that it would be laughable were it not for the fact that it is a lethal game. The missile was supposed to have been unveiled on Pakistan Day, March 23, but Nawaz Sharif was prevailed upon by Washington to hold his hand. What has changed in two weeks is that with the BJP well ensconced in power, Islamabad has the excuse it needs to defy Washington. It justifies its action on the strength of the BJP's manifesto commitment to exercise the nuclear option, which admittedly, suggests a major change in Indian policy. However, Islamabad has chosen to ignore subsequent clarifications from the Indian Prime Minister and Defence Minister tothe effect that India will exercise its option ``only if necessary'' which restored the status quo.

It would be very short-sighted for the Vajpayee government to respond by, for example, preparing for another test of the Agni at the present juncture, knowing fully well what a fifth test would imply. It is exactly the kind of knee-jerk reaction Islamabad is counting on in order to escape the consequences of its action and to lend a further rationale to what is in fact completely irrational for Pakistan in economic, political and military terms. Atal Bihari Vajpayee should not allow himself to be pressured into an irresponsible course of action. Instead, he should, as he has promised, proceed calmly with the review of India's security policy and the international environment. He surely recognises that this country does not need to demonstrate its obvious military strength just now so much as it needs to demonstrate its good sense. Among other things that would mean pursuing the dialogue with Pakistan, puttingparticular emphasis on the desirability of military confidence-building measures.