It was only three months ago that voters went to the polls in the last general elections, in which sitting MLA George Eden got elected to the Lok Sabha, necessitating the present by-election. The electorate here feel the election has been foisted on them and has no major political implications at the state level or national level.

Besides the apparent apathy of the voters, another aspect which worries both fronts is the possibility of setting in of monsoon rains in the next few days. A drastic fall in voter turnout due to any of these factors is likely to upset the calculations of both fronts.

The issues are mostly local, ranging from the mosquito menace in the city, drinking watershortage in many parts of the constituency and infrastructural problems like roads and bridges.

The main contestants are debutant Leno Jacob (Cong-UDF) and Sebastian Paul (Ind-LDF), the sitting local MP who lost to George Eden in the last Lok Sabha polls. The other two in the fray are T D Rajalekshmi, an independent fielded by the Bharatiya Janata Party and Jose Padikkal (Ind). The constituency has a total electorate of 1,72,746, comprising a decisive chunk of Latin Christian voters.

Ernakulam, considered to be a traditional stronghold of the Congress, went the LDF way only in 1987 when veteran state Congress leader A L Jacob, who represented the constituency for a record 25 years, lost to M K Sanu, an independent fielded by the CPI(M) led front. However, George Eden wrestled the seat from the LDF in 1991 and 1996, proving the UDF dominance.

Even in the 1997 Lok Sabha by-elections, which saw LDF candidate Sebastian Paul's upset victory over UDF nominee Antony Issac, the Congress had a decisive lead inthe Ernakulam Assembly segment. Apart from these general factors, apparently favourable to the UDF, the Congress is also banking on the popularity and political pedigree factor of its candidate, Leno Jacob, the son of A L Jacob.