An analysis of the results of the 1998 Lok Sabha polls by The Indian Express indicates why the AIADMK is in a hurry to get the Tamil Nadu Assembly dissolved and hold fresh elections. While the DMK-TMC front won in only 74 Assembly segments, the AIADMK-BJP combine was victorious in 159 others. Thus, former chief minister J Jayalalitha has set her sights on the Fort St George, the seat of power in the state, not so much worried about the Red Fort area.

However, TMC leader Moopanar's move is curious in more ways than one -- it is not just that the DMK-TMC front is looking to expand its base by roping in more allies -- the inclusion of the Congress in theanti-AIADMK front could give the latter 21 of the 39 Lok Sabha seats as against only 9 in 1998. More importantly, the Karunanidhi-led front could win as many as 120 of the 234 State Assembly seats, if the Congress was part of its combine, assuming the 1998 Lok Sabha votes were polled again by the respective parties in the next elections.

Moopanar's call to the Congress to co-ordinate with the TMC even while the latter maintains that it would not sever ties with the DMK is therefore seen as the-best-of-both-worlds strategy. The Congress fared poorly in the LS elections, losing deposits all over the state but the 5 per cent vote it bagged could give the DMK-TMC front just the cutting edge it requires to blunt the rivals. Also to be roped in are the CPM and the Janata Dal next time round, who didn't find a place in the electoral alliance for 1998.

The analysis reveals that the DMK could win 5 more seats and the TMC as much as 7 more, if the Congress becomes its ally. The DMK could bag Sriperumbudur,Chengalpattu, Chidambaram, Pudukottai and Tirunelveli while the TMC could clinch Cuddalore, Nilgiris (where former Union minister S.R. Balasubramaniam lost), Palani, Dindigul, Madurai (where the party lost a prestigious fight to Subramaniam Swamy), Tiruchy (where BJP candidate and the present Union Power minister Rangarajan Kumaramangalam won) and Ramanathapuram.

If the Puthiya Tamizhagam were also to back the DMK-TMC front, the TMC could triumph in another Parliamentary constituency (Tenkasi) where former Union minister M Arunachalam was made to bite the dust. The added booty for the combine in the Assembly polls would be an extra 15 seats in the company of the Puthiya Tamizhagam.

It is this political arithmetic that has seen strange formulations mooted by the TMC, which though a part of the United Front, is confident that the UF leaders including the left parties would wink at inclusion of the Congress in the DMK-TMC front in Tamil Nadu. TMC sources refer to the green signal given to Mulayam SinghYadav's Samajwadi party to have some "local adjustments" with the Congress in Maharashtra, a strategy which paid dividends to the anti-BJP camp.

There is speculation in the TMC camp about the role of the DMK in enabling such an arrangement in Tamil Nadu. Having been chastened by the defeat in the last Lok Sabha polls, sources in both parties say there is greater sense of pragmatism and realism in the planning process now. Thus, TMC sources say, the DMK will have no objection to having a direct alliance with the Congress or allowing the TMC to have seat adjustments with the Congress in a kind of indirect alliance. The DMK is even ready to back a Congress-led government at the Centre, provided it has no truck with the AIADMK and the DMK government is assured of a full term in the state, according to TMC sources. The DMK camp is silent about the behind-the-scene moves that are on in Delhi in bringing the Congress closer to the UF camp.