WASHINGTON, June 3: The Central Intelligence Agency had too few spies on the ground in India and too few analysts to examine technical data on the country in Washington, leading to the colossal intelligence failure in predicting last month's nuclear tests, a panel appointed to review the episode reported on Tuesday.The 26-page report, which is classified but the broad contents of which was evident from briefings by the principals involved in the inquiry, also blamed CIA analysts for not taking seriously enough the Bharatiya Janata Party's manifesto which openly called for inducting nuclear weapons. The BJP's election promises were dismissed as campaign rhetoric.
``We should have been much more aggressive in thinking how the other guy thinks... Both the intelligence and the policy community had an underlying mind-set going into the tests that the BJP would behave as we behave,'' retired Admiral David Jeremiah, a four star General who headed the panel, said at a news conference.
The review pointed outthat the CIA did not have enough personnel on the ground and was found wanting in Human Intelligent (HUMINT), suggesting that the agency failed to penetrate the Indian nuclear programme.
A CIA analyst reportedly pointed out the shortage in a memo some two years back to senior agency officials and sought more resources for the subcontinent. Higher officials complied with his request, but the new additions did not focus exclusively on the nuclear issue. The review panel also found US intelligence agencies overloaded with technical data and satellite imagery and photos it could not scrutinise, often leaving them on the ``cutting room floor''.
The National Imagery and Mapping Agency, which is responsible for examining spy satellite photography, had only one analyst monitoring activities in India. It took the Jeremiah panel 13 analysts to reexamine the evidence and figure out what could have been predicted. While panning the CIA leadership for its failure, Admiral Jeremiah said senior intelligence officials,including the CIA director, were too focused in routine budgetary and administrative matters and did not pay enough attention to national security concerns.
But the review did not recommend any firing or punishment, noting that no lives were lost in the failure and even if the agency had foreseen the tests the administration probably could not have prevented India from conducting them.
CIA director Tenet, who discussed the report with President Clinton and also briefed the Senate Intelligence Committee on Tuesday, was contrite. Denying that the intelligence community was ``asleep at the switch'', Tenet admitted ``there's no getting around the fact that in this instance we missed and did not predict the particular tests involved. Simply stated, we did not get it right.''
US intelligence agencies have a $ 27 billion annual budget, about three times the entire annual defence budget of India.
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.