NEW DELHI, June 29: Alarm bells are ringing in the government. With only two days to go for the crucial July 1 meeting of the AIADMK Front, general secretary J Jayalalitha is learnt to have become incommunicado and is refusing to accept calls from anyone, even her own party leaders. Concerned BJP leaders fear that there is little time to salvage the situation.Sources said senior BJP leader Jaswant Singh's peace mission to Chennai is hanging fire because it has not been possible to get an appointment with Jayalalitha. (Singh, who has succeeded in placating her on two previous occasions, was deputed by the Coordination Committee to ``brief'' Jayalalitha on the meeting.) Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha, who was in Chennai, also tried to meet her but did not succeed.
However, a senior BJP office-bearer and MP claimed today that informal talks were on through intermediaries. ``We are in touch and are confident that the situation will not take any adverse turn,'' he said. However, he admitted that as far as heknew, there had not been any direct contact with Jayalalitha after June 27.
BJP leaders are anxious to avert a crisis by pacifying her before the July 1 meeting at which it is feared that the Front may decide to withdraw its ministers from the government. If this happens it could be a prelude to the AIADMK and its Front partners withdrawing support to the Vajpayee government.
For the minority government, the AIADMK Front's support during the vote on the Budget is critical. So even a decision to either boycott the session or suspend support (as Mamata Banerjee did briefly at the start of the Budget session) could lead to a major crisis. If a money bill is not passed, the government falls.
The Jayalalitha problem has been exacerbated by the confusion in the BJP on how to tackle her. While moderates like the Prime Minister and Jaswant Singh are said to be in favour of giving her the importance she values, hardliners in the party are arguing against any further appeasement and ``pampering''.The division hasresulted in the lack of a clear strategy which has been highlighted by the provocative statements made by senior BJP leaders in the past 10 days. The aim was apparently to put the AIADMK leader in her place, mainly because it was felt that she had no alternative but to continue supporting the BJP-led government.
The events of the past few days have forced a rethink on this policy, as the Congress and other Opposition parties move towards some kind of understanding. Jayalalitha, too, is reported to be in touch with some Opposition leaders. But an optimistic BJP leader said today, ``The Congress is not in a hurry; Jayalalitha is not in a hurry. Put together, that means that the government is not in danger.''
A section of BJP leaders believe that it would be difficult for any Opposition grouping that includes the Left to agree to Jayalalitha's main demand (TN government dismissal) and are therefore hopeful that she will not pull out.
Hardliners in the party feel that the image of the government as well asthe BJP is getting a beating by constantly appearing to be prostrating before Jayalalitha. ``We are tired of pampering her. We are losing our cool,'' a senior BJP functionary remarked last week. In any case, some feel that elections may be preferable to running the coalition government under such pressure.
In the meantime, the government is taking comfort from a limited opinion poll conducted a month ago which finds that urban public opinion about the performance of the government is generally favourable. Informally circulated by officials on the occasion of the government completing 100 days in office, the survey states that nearly 35 per cent voters interviewed found its performance good, while 40 per cent said it was satisfactory.
Prime Minister Vajpayee's performance was adjudged better, with 42 per cent of the respondents giving him a ``good'' rating. Not so comforting was the finding that the government and the PM received a better rating from graduates and above, while those with lesser educationviewed them with less support. As many as 48 per cent of the students, labourers and unemployed persons interviewed said the government's performance was poor.
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.