If there is a Congress leader among the new breed who has used the four weapons of saam, daam, dand and bhed (persuasion, money, fear and a policy of divide and rule) to his advantage, it is Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Digvijay Singh.Like P.V. Narasimha Rao, his biggest achievement is that he has lasted a whole term in spite of the efforts to dislodge him and despite the Congress defeat in two successive Lok Sabha elections. He has survived three Congress presidents -- Rao, Sitaram Kesri and now Sonia Gandhi.
Time and again the maharathis (veterans) of Madhya Pradesh politics have tried to to topple him. Arjun Singh, Madhav Rao Scindia, the Shukla brothers, Motilal Vora, Kamal Nath and Ajit Jogi joined hands to press for his ouster when Sonia took over. For a couple of weeks it seemed that he was on his way out. But Digvijay has a charmed political life.
He convinced Sonia that disturbing him at this stage would go against her. She too did not want to risk a change which mayrecoil on her personally in the event of a defeat in Madhya Pradesh, which seems a foregone conclusion -- unless Digvijay manages to pull a rabbit out of his hat.
He has staked his political future on it and declared publicly that he will not take any position for the next 10 years unless he can keep the Congress flag flying in Bhopal.
Digvijay knows only too well that good governance alone does not deliver electoral victory. Had that not been the case, Laloo Prasad Yadav could not have won successive elections. He is, therefore, prepared to cajole and plead where necessary and wield the stick where required. He has pulled all stops, be it on the transfer of land to the slum dwellers or getting Raipur as the capital of Chhatisgarh.
It is no secret that Digvijay did not go all out to win the elections in February 1998. On the contrary, say his detractors, he bent over backwards to get at least 10 Congress candidates opposed to him, including Arjun Singh, defeated. The BJP led in 230 out of the 320Assembly elections in the 1998 polls. The situation was almost similar in 1996, though the Congress (Tiwari) had cut into its votes.
A maestro in the art of realpolitik, Digvijay knows that it would be more difficult to remove the leader of a weak Congress months before state elections than that of a Congress on the ascent. The tie-up with the BSP, which seemed to be on the cards for the 1998 elections, was suddenly and mysteriously off.
Divijay has been a quick learner. As he says, he has learnt the art of realpolitik from Arjun Singh. But the protege quickly marginalised the mentor. Arjun Singh's plans had rested on getting a sizeable chunk of the Congress to go over to him after he and Narayan Dutt Tiwari broke away from the parent party. But they were defeated by his own shishya. Diggy Raja, as the chief minister is popularly known in his home turf of Raghogarh, applied the old, and ruthless, principle of the throne -- that you cannot rule and be seen at the mercy of someone else.
To beginwith, he had achieved a neat balancing act between Rao and Arjun Singh. His problems began when Arjun Singh fell out with Rao. He managed to convince Rao that he was the one and the only one who could finish Arjun Singh by emerging as his Rajput rival in the politics of Madhya Pradesh.
And now the great survivor faces his biggest ever challenge. For all the unity conclaves that he has planned -- Arjun Singh did not attend the last two in Raipur and Indore -- his opponents in the Congress are not going to make things easy for him. Many of them may prefer the defeat of the Congress than risk him coming back for another five years. Victory for the Congress -- and only a miracle can bring this about -- would make him invincible.
For all its internal dissensions and complacency in Madhya Pradesh, the BJP is perking up. It is already wooing all those arraigned against the chief minister.
The incumbency factor will naturally go against him. The image of his government is tainted. The Congress in Madhya Pradeshis a divided house despite all the efforts Sonia is making to get the leaders to sink their differences.
But there is also a flip side. The BJP is getting a lot of flak for not being able to govern in Delhi, and that will be Digvijay's asset. The Congress takeover by Sonia, seen as a break from the past, is expected to bring Dalits and the minorities back into the party fold.
Digvijay could gain from an alliance with the BSP this time. But Sonia and many of those around her favour the Congress going it alone. But everything ultimately hinges on how effectively the Congress closes ranks. Rhetoric apart, this can take place only if Digvijay's arch rivals like Scindia and Arjun Singh acquire a stake in the party's victory in the state. At the end of the day, what will help Digvijay is not necessarily another term in Bhopal, but a victory for the party in the state under his leadership.
"If Congress loses, the leadership of Soniaji will be affected"
It is said that unless there is unityamongst senior party leaders of Madhya Pradesh, the Congress does not stand a chance in the coming elections...
I can assure you that all senior leaders have made up their mind to work together. All realise that this is the first election under Sonia Gandhi's leadership and we have to produce results unitedly.
Arjun Singh did not attend the unity conclave either at Raipur or at Indore. The guru and chela have fallen out...
Aisa nahin hai. (This is not the case.) Arjun Singh had left the party not because of anything in Madhya Pradesh but because of the politics in Delhi. The hawala case was not because of Digvijay Singh.
Are you planning to have a tie-up with the BSP in the coming State elections?
I can't comment on it at the moment. The BSP did get 7-8 per cent of the votes last time. It has strong pockets in certain areas. But we have yet to formalise our strategy. All options are open. The BSP is one option. The other is to combine with all thesmaller groups besides the BSP, like SP, CPI, JP, the Republican Party, and even the local unit of the Samata Party. The third is to go it alone.
Don't you think it is important for all anti-BJP forces to combine if you are to take on the BJP?
It depends on how you look at it. For example, if we align with the BSP, we'd have to see how it would affect our anti-Dalit vote, whether they would stay with us or migrate to the BJP. We have to take a very cautious stand.
Ever since the BSP emerged on the scene, the politics of the country has become unstable. The weakening of the Congress also contributed to the fracturing of the polity. A section of the Dalits have started realising that in the present political structure, the BSP cannot form a stable government on its own. The Congress has made mistakes but if it mends its ways, they may look at the Congress again. That is what the Congress should strive for -- to bring back what was with us for 40 years, and to provide a stable government. Wecannot do it unless we build ourselves in what some call the cow belt.
That is a Herculean task.
But a doable one.
What are the implications of the coming elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Delhi?
They will have a bearing on UP and Bihar. The stakes are very high for both the Congress and the BJP. If the BJP loses, its dreams of becoming the alternative to the Congress will be shattered. If the Congress loses, then the leadership of Soniaji, whom every Congressperson looks up to, will get affected, and other factors will move in.
The Congress's defeat could weaken her leadership?
Yes. The stakes are high for her. They are also high for Digvijay Singh. I am putting everything I have into this election.
Who has been your political mentor?
I started with Arjun Singh, then Rajiv Gandhi and now Soniaji.
But who taught you realpolitik?
That was more Arjun Singhji.
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.
