Apparently, Vaghela sees an opportunity in the reigning political uncertainty at the Centre. "The Vajpayee government is tottering and the RLM would definitely have a role in the formation of an alternative government," Vaghela feels given the morcha's strength in the Lok Sabha.

He has ambitious plans: Help in formulation of a common minimum programme and smooth running of a new government at the Centre and formation of a `third force' in Gujarat. The fact that his Rashtriya Janata Party has only one Lok Sabha member Anand Mohan Singh, would be no handicap, Vaghela believes. "Remember, there was a time when the BJP had only two MPs," he remarks.

But Vaghela's opponents regard his action as `survival tactics'. They point out that in recent months, Vaghela's attempts to win public sympathy by taking out a Rath Yatra against the delay in completion of the Narmada project, or organising agitations against rising prices and deteriorating law and order had failed to evoke much response.

According to Siddhartha Bhat, political analyst, there was a real danger of Vaghela `slipping into political oblivion'. Therefore, he has tried to place himself in a strategic position to take advantage of any political change at the Centre, says Bhat. "Of course, it also gives him much-needed recognition at the national level," Bhat adds.

Although Vaghela denies it, Congress leaders say the former Chief Minister had earlier made an attempt to join their party, but was rebuffed because the State leaders did not agree. Party sources say he had contacted Sonia Gandhi through certain intermediaries. Now Laloo and Mulayam have accepted him because, "perhaps they think they need a foothold in the State," a Congress leader remarked.

Vaghela's threat of creating a `third force' does not cause any concern either to the Congress or the BJP. Says Amar singh Chaudhary, Leader of Opposition in the Gujarat Vidhan Sabha, "Laloo Yadav's RJD has no presence in the State. Mulayam Singh's Samajwadi Party does have an MLA, but he won because of his personal influence." BJP spokesman Bharat Pandya holds similar views. "Vaghela has one MP and four MLAs. His party is disintegrating. But he claims his is a national party and is also talking of forming a third force," says Pandya. He believes that Vaghela has joined the RLM because he wants `to exploit the anti-BJP coalition' that is being cobbled up at the Centre.

But the BJP could not afford to be complacent if there is a change of government at the Centre. Vaghela would have some clout in the new dispensation and could create problems for the BJP government, which has a tendency to sweep problems under the carpet. "Whether it was price rise or deteriorating law and order, the government did not appear much worried," said Siddhartha Bhat.

Immediately, Vaghela may be eyeing the Bharuch LS seat, where a by-election is due. Reports that he wants to contest have been in the air for some time. The constituency is dominated by Muslims and Adivasis and the BJP had won it in 1996 by not a very big margin. Vaghela may be banking on Laloo and Mulayam to influence minority and Adivasi voters.

He is wooing the two Yadavs assiduously. He has converted RJP's mahasammelan, which is going to be held here on Thursday to commemorate the party's second anniversary, into a RLM mahasammelan. The two Yadavs will be the guests of honour. Former Prime Minister Chandra Shekhar has also been invited.