Gujarat's favourite cooking medium is, no doubt, now available in market, and the price is also around Rs 56 a kg down from the peak of Rs 70. But the consumer still has to pay through his nose 25 per cent more than the `voluntary price ceiling' of Rs 44, at which the millers had offered to sell the commodity.

As for the government, it has not only lost face by taking punitive action which Chief Minister Keshubhai Patel always described as `illegal', but its ham-handed approach has also brought all opposition parties on one platform they have jointly decided to organise a state-wide bandh on September 18.

Worse for the government, experts believe that the improved availability of oil and fall in price has been dictated by the oil lobby's cold business calculations, and not any fear of the government stick.

``The oil lobby is too strong to be frightened easily,'' said Harjivan Suthar, an economist and expert on oil.

Suthar pointed out certain facts for which the raids offer no explanation. Not much oil or groundnut was found in raids but, nevertheless, the commodity was now available in market, unlike a few week ago. Besides, the price had fallen not only in Gujarat, but also in far-away places like Mumbai.

``One has to look beyond the raids,'' Suthar said, and attributed the change in market conditions to extensive rains in Saurashtra over last week-end and reports of a good crop from other groundnut producing states, like Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh, which came while the raids were going on.

Suthar recalled that before the rains came, there was a general apprehension of a poor crop. So the millers and traders were hoarding, and the oil price shot up. But after the rains and reports of good crops from other states, ``they saw no point in hoarding'', and started releasing the stocks, Suthar said.

A senior government officer agreed that the factors mentioned by Suthar did play ``a very important role'', but maintained that the raids had also ``contributed in easing the situation''.

So long as Food & Supplies Minister Jaspal Singh and the Chief Minister spoke in different tone, with the former advocating strong action and latter vetoing it, the millers knew they could do whatever they liked.

``They did not honour their own commitment to sell oil at Rs 44'', he said.

But once the chief minister, during his visit of Saurashtra, asked the millers and traders to ``behave responsibly'' or face action, and raids began, ``they knew the government would not tolerate more mischief'', the officer said.

It is now known that the government not only ordered raids, but also imposed stock restrictions, started checking sales tax records and mounted a vigil on the borders to prevent movement of stocks to other states without the permission of collectors.

``It created the necessary psychological impact,'' the officer said. This may have contributed to the fall in price, but not as greatly as is being made out by the government.