The gain of one party is the loss of other in Delhi, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, where anti-incumbency factor is going to decide the outcome of forthcoming assembly polls, he has said.

If the just-concluded opinion poll in these three states is any indication, the BJP will lose in Delhi and Rajasthan, while the Congress was likely to suffer a setback in Madhya Pradesh.

Dr Rao, a leading social researcher and proponent of the social audit concept in India, told Express Newsline that the outcome of anti-incumbency could be disastrous for the country ``as frequent change of the government might adversely affect the ongoing process of economic reforms''.

According to him, the anti-incumbency factor is here. The last two general elections have shown that the people have voted against ruling parties in their respective states, barring two exceptions - Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal.

Dwelling on the anti-incumbency factor, Dr Rao says the change is not necessarily good. It is a double-edged and could prove harmful and directionless.

He says some of the essential features, which lead to anti-incumbency phenomenon are: price, availability of water, electricity, law and order, employment and transparency.

Interestingly, he is currently experimenting with a new methodology of opinion polls, as he feels that our methodology has become stagnant. ``We tend to believe that larger sample size gives an accurate picture, which is not true.'' The present methodology adopted by most agencies conducting opinion polls is not structured in such a way that can relate votes to seat and votes with other external factors, he says.

Dr Rao, is conducting a survey in an assembly and parliamentary constituency, where elections are due in November and another two assembly and parliamentary constituency, where elections are not due, to find out to what extend the anti-incumbency factor will play a decisive role.

He, however, says one of the advantages of opinion polls is to bring to agenda the real issues. ``But unfortunately opinion polls are conducted to find out some leader's popularity. Political parties hire agencies only to find out their poll prospect,'' he regrets.