India and Pakistan can't start talking. India and the US can't stop talking. Ever since the so-called strategic dialogue between Washington and New Delhi was kicked off in 1997, top officials from the two countries have spent more than 100 hours talking and talking and talking, conforming to the Churchillian dictum that jaw-jaw is better than well, not war-war, since India and the US have little to war about sulky or studied silence.Although the dialogue was kicked off during the time of Prime Minister I.K. Gujral of the United Front Government, it has acquired an urgency following the nuclear tests conducted by the BJP government under Prime Minister Vajpayee.The principal interlocutor of the ongoing dialogue is Vajpayee's special envoy Jaswant Singh, who has suddenly emerged as the guardian of India's emerging nuclear doctrine. An immensely polished -- if slightly starchy -- lawmaker from Rajasthan, Singh has led the Indian delegation in post-nuclear talks stretching four rounds running into more than25 hours. Last week, he was pow-wowing again, meeting his US counterpart Strobe Talbott in the executive lounge of New York's JFK airport for another exchange -- Round 4a, as someone put it. On October 20, he will be in Washington again, possibly for a Round 4b, because it is not a structured delegational exchange. So intensive and extensive are the Talbott-Singh parleys that officials and analysts from both sides are saying this corpus constitutes the most complete exchange of views in the history of diplomatic relations between the two countries.
But the political crisis that has erupted from President Clinton's domestic trouble is now threatening to scupper, at least in the short term, talks which are now said to be at a delicate and final stage. Both US and Indian officials acknowledge that the political paralysis that is beginning to envelop Washington will have some impact on the talks, although they maintain that the two sides are too committed and too deep into the dialogue for it to be permanentlydisrupted or derailed by domestic crises in either country. Says India's Ambassador to the US, Naresh Chandra, ``The issues we are discussing are long term issues. They are relevant in a more permanent way, not just for four years. We have kept our talks immune from the immediate domestic developments in both countries.''
So, where will the dialogue stand, if say, President Clinton -- who is responsible in many ways for initiating the talks -- is forced out of office? Officials say the long-term dialogue will carry on, even if it is momentarily disabled. But privately they acknowledge that it could set back the clock by six months or more. And who knows if Clinton goes, who will be the next President? The general belief is that President Clinton, despite his punishing ways with the sanctions, is fundamentally well-disposed towards India. So also his friend and Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott. Will a new team forged by, say, a President Al Gore -- a known non-proliferation hawk -- be as eager to doa deal with New Delhi?
While that may be thinking too far ahead although things are moving at dizzying speed in Washington the immediate timetable New Delhi is watching is unfolding on the Hill. Under the first part of an emerging and unspoken agreement between New Delhi and Washington, the US Congress has to pass an amendment lifting sanctions imposed after May 13 for India to even begin considering signing the comprehensive test ban treaty. The so-called Brownback Amendment, attached to the agriculture appropriations bill, has moved through the Senate. A House of Representatives committee has to take it up before it can be voted on, passed, and sent to the President for assent. The Amendment is no big deal really -- it overturns only some of the economic sanctions imposed on India and Pakistan following the May tests.
But even that may be difficult to push through because of the political crisis gripping Washington. The House is sitting for only another 18 working days before it repairs for anelection. The Brownback Amendment has to pass in those 18 days and go to the President, for the first of many steps of good faith the Clinton administration is needed to show New Delhi before India will accede to signing the test ban treaty.
Big question: Will a House so completely distracted by the sex scandal be in any mood to even consider such a distant issue now? If this amendment does not pass and reach the President before the end of the month, then the Clinton visit to South Asia, already under a cloud, will not happen because it is seen as unlikely that the President will visit a country which he has sanctioned. For that matter, as some one observed dryly, even of the amendment goes through, Clinton may not go to the region as President because he may not be one before the month is over.
Meanwhile, what of the talks? They will go on as long as the administration is in place, say officials. The one silver lining in the sudden gloom that has enveloped the Indo-US talkathon (because of the fear thatthe Clinton trouble will render it sterile) is the personal chemistry that officials from both sides swear has developed between them, especially between Talbott and Singh.
Sure enough, dozens of hours of talks, sometimes one-on-one like they did in the hotel lounge in Frankfurt, has brought them much closer. For sheer photo-op alas, there were no cameras there has been nothing to match a geeky Talbott in a rakish straw hat driving up to the Watergate Hotel in a Mercedes convertible to pick up Singh, a corduroy T-shirt in place of his trademark stiff bandhgala, and haul him off home for dinner. A surprise drop-in guest at the dinner National Security Advisor Sandy Berger, one indication of how seriously the Americans are engaging Singh.
There have been moments of mirth too. During the last round in Washington, while some members of the Indian team were breakfasting in the Watergate Hotel early in the morning, who should walk in but -- hold your breath -- a certain Monica Lewinsky, who lives with hermother in the adjoining apartments. Later, when the Indian team was dialoguing in the dull, grey, colourless State Department, they discovered an adjoining terrace where they could repair for a cigarette break (at least two members of the four member Indian team smoke. And rumour hath it that even Jaswant Singh and Ambassador Naresh Chandra have an occasional chuff now, thanks to the intensity of the talks. None of the Americans Deputy Secretary Strobe Talbott, Assistant Secretary Rick Inderfurth, Special Envoy Matt Daley and Vice-chairman of the Joint Chief of Staff Joesh Ralston -- smoke). In course of the talks, the Indian side also discovered that Talbott has some India connection -- his wife Brooke Shearer has visited New Delhi and stayed with the wife of a well-known journalist.
But officials say none of this can distract from Talbott's supreme commitment to securing US interests and non-proliferation goals. The Indians, themselves a tough bunch, say he is a superb negotiator who has a handle onevery nuance in the non-proliferation and disarmament business.
Whether the dialogue reaches its logical end -- the US beginning to ease up on sanctions and accepting India into the international nuclear regime and New Delhi acquiescing to the CTBT, now depends on the developments both on the Hill and the White House over the next fortnight. Even if that is scuppered, say officials, it will happen later. Perhaps next year. But one thing is certain, the dialogue will not simply die out.
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.