This has become inevitable as the Gas Authority of India (GAIL) has suspended fertiliser plants from drawing on gas which is present in the pipeline as this has been exclusively diverted for use of the power plants of National Thermal Power Corporation (NTPC) situated along the pipeline.

The plants which will be affected include two of IFFCO at Aonla, two of KRIBHCO at Hazira, two of National Fertilisers Ltd (NFL) at Vijaipur, Oswal's at Shahjahanpur, Indo Gulf Fertilisers at Jagdishpur, Tata's at Babrala and Chambal Fertilisers at Gadepan.

Most of these plants, even where the dual feedstock capability exists, manufacturers are planning to use the shutdown period for maintenance work rather than using alternative fuel. This is because the gas based plants find other fuel like naphtha more expensive and second as this is not used regularly, fresh supplies have to be negotiated and the logistics worked out. ``So if the disruption in the gas supplies from the HBJ pipeline are for a short period, the companies may opt for shut down rather than contracting fresh fuel supplies,'' says a senior ministry official.

The only saving grace, say ministry sources, is the fact that the industry was sitting on inventories of 25 lakh tonnes as at the beginning of September 1. The large inventories were a result of a good production during the year and depressed offtakes owing to either flood conditions in several parts of the country or drought situation in some pockets. This had started a discount war between manufacturers which may now come to an end.

The annual consumption of urea during 1997-98 was 196 lakh tonnes and was expected to scale 200 lakh tonnes duringthe current year.