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Tuesday, November 10, 1998

Elephants clash

 
As the ticket mela closed, it looked like the story of clashing elephants and trampled grass. With the Congress and the BJP preparing to meet head on in the November 25 poll, regional parties for the most part, barring those in Mizoram, have been reduced to insignificance. Most of the BJP's allies can make no credible claim to seats in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh or Delhi.

Twisting the BJP's arm was their only hope of getting a toehold in those states and twist they did right to the bitter end. However, all but Om Prakash Chautala have come away empty-handed. It makes no sense for the BJP to accommodate allies as unmanageable and prone to going their separate ways as the Trinamool Congress, the Lok Shakti and the Samata Party. In any case, it was always an alliance of convenience at the Centre with no logical underpinning in the states going to the poll. Refusing to share seats cannot make the BJP's relations with its allies worse than they are already. On the other hand, a strong showing in the Novemberelections will tilt the balance in the coalition in BJP's favour. Frustrated allies could still try and play the part of spoilers. Where marginal constituencies are involved, the BJP will have to try and neutralise them somehow. The Shiromani Akali Dal, which came close to getting a share of seats eventually, backed down and agreed to support BJP candidates in Delhi and Rajasthan. This consolidation of anti-Congress votes is an important gain for the BJP.

Regional parties have no place either in the Congress scheme of things. The so-called strategic alliance with the BSP, promptly denied by Mayawati, is a decoy which may not amount to much. What is central to Congress plans is Sonia Gandhi's gamble on a new look Congress party especially in Madhya Pradesh where as many as a third of the sitting MLAs has been denied tickets. It is a bold gamble and well worth taking. The incumbency factor is generally decisive in Assembly elections. Incumbency is working to the disadvantage of the BJP in Rajasthan and Delhiand it is expected to hurt the Congress in Madhya Pradesh. However, the Congress can go to the polls claiming to have done the electorate's work for it by eliminating its deadwood, including a number of ministers, before the race was begun. In addition, factional bosses have been kept in check and Digvijay Singh, whose head is on the block, has emerged stronger and more confident. All these factors lend new colour to Congress prospects in Madhya Pradesh which had appeared quite bleak until now.

The rejection of ``losers'' has created platoons of rebels in both the BJP and the Congress. In that both parties, and particularly the Congress in Rajasthan, have refused to reward defectors with tickets, the message is rebellion does not pay. But there could be a change of mind if the results are close. Once again rhetoric is not matched with action to empower women.

It is disgraceful that both major parties have fielded so few women candidates. All the usual caste, community and factional compromises have beenachieved but neither the BJP nor the Congress, dependent as they are on women politicians, has the political will to support more women.

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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