But when the reasons are complex, every nuance matters, not just the state of the roads. The attack on the Catholic convent in Jhabua seven weeks ago could well cast a shadow on the elections. To understand what really happened, I drove to the tribal district bordering Gujarat and Rajasthan.

Earlier, Madhya Pradesh's Bhil-dominated districts were the responsibility of the Khandwa diocese. Encouraged by the volume of work, the church expanded its activities. Over 17 years ago, the Indore diocese became active. The church's first visible presence in Jhabua was in 1992 when the Jeevan Jyoti hospital was opened in Meghnanagar, 18 km from Jhabua town, under the supervision of a doctor and eight nuns from Kerala. This was the first serious effort to bring health care to the district's people.

There still remained vast tracts without accessto primary education and health care. It was impossible for the church mission to fill the gap. But a beginning could be made. The village of Nawapada, which forms a sort of triangle with Jhabua and Meghanagar, was identified for establishing a small dispensary. Congregations in Pondicherry and Tiruchi sent two nurses each.

In November 1997, the dispensary was inaugurated. A priest supervised the work of the four sisters, three of them in their twenties. A nine-room building was to house the sisters, a dispensary and a small chapel. The priest lived in another house a small distance away. Two night watchmen kept vigil on the two establishments. But on September 22, when the priest had left for some work in Indore, the two watchmen decided to spend the night in the priest's house. The four sisters were left unprotected.

Past midnight a crowd collected outside the house. They asked the sisters to open the door because a child was ``seriously sick''. One of the sisters peeped out of the window. The mencarried guns, bows and arrows and large sticks. They should bring a letter from the priest, the sisters said, because it was too late in the night for them to open the dispensary.

The door was broken open. The rooms were ransacked. Rs 25,000 from the dispensary cash-box, a radio, tape recorder, stabiliser, cassettes, clothes were all taken. Silver crosses on slim chains around the necks of the sisters hiding in the chapel were carefully cut with knives. Even vegetables (including onions) from the refrigerator were gathered in a bag.

The nuns were dragged out on the porch. Fearing for their life they screamed for help. They were pushed down on the floor. Towels were forced between their teeth. Three were raped one by five men, one by four and and the third by two. At about 4 a.m. the men left. Neighbours, afraid to help earlier because the men were armed, rushed to the convent.

Police investigations continue. So far 21 suspects have been arrested.These are the incontrovertible facts I have piecedtogether after talking to the nuns, the collector and some social workers. The case is horrible by itself, but what has unfortunately invested it with political interest are speculative stories spun out on the eve of elections.

The incident is extremely amenable to a communal interpretation. This the Congress rather shortsightedly tried to do at the outset. Since Jhabua borders Gujrat and Rajasthan, both BJP states, the mischief may have been injected from across the border into a district which has been a Congress stronghold. This was the sort of speculation being sponsored by the Congress. Even as cold-blooded realpolitik this was self-defeating. Hindu consolidation from such communalisation would tend to favour the BJP.

The other speculation concerned Dilip Singh Bhuria who, along with Aslam Sher Khan, had defected to the BJP two years ago. Even though Digvijay Singh's friend Kantilal Bhuria (Cong) had defeated Dilip Singh Bhuria (BJP) by 85,000 votes from this constituency in the Lok Sabha elections.Dilip Singh provides an opening to the party in the district. In the Vidhan Sabha election Dilip Singh Bhuria's daughter, Nirmala Bhuria (BJP), may wean away one of the five assembly segments the Congress has never lost. But there is no evidence that these factors were in operation on September 22. A senior nun explained the incident in terms of crime being a way of life in the area. It was extraordinarily audacious of four nuns to live by themselves in an area where cars moved in convoys for fear of attack.

The speculative stories then curl around Congress factional politics. How did Sonia Gandhi get the details of the story before Digvijay Singh? Because party spokesman Ajit Jogi, a tribal Christian, informed 10 Janpath ahead of others to discredit the chief minister. There is no evidence to substantiate this either. It is true that the church, through its own network, was able to inform Sonia Gandhi but Jogi's complicity is not proven.

The Congress government in the state has lost marks on anothercount. Why were four Superintendents of Police changed in Jhabua in six months? Why is the administration not naming the culprits? In the district headquarters and the mofussil towns, these are the questions being asked. In an election where the outcome is too close to call, such questions can be embarrassing.