NEW DELHI, December 1: Opposition circles are abuzz with speculation on the survival of the BJP-led government following a series of discussions in the Congress and the Left parties today on AIADMK chief J Jayalalitha's agenda during her scheduled visit here on December 3.The discussions were of a formal nature in the CPM, with its politburo beginning its two-day meeting today, and of an informal nature in the Congress and other Left parties. Jayalalitha is slated to arrive here on the morning of December 3 and is expected to meet Congress president Sonia Gandhi in what will be the first meeting between the two on a formal note after Sonia became Congress president.
Jayalalitha and Sonia are also expected to attend a function in aid of the Spastics Society here and the time the two women will spend together is triggering off widespread speculation.
The AIADMK chief is the only one among the BJP's allies to have said that the recent mandate in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Delhi was a vote against theBJP. The Congress, Left and other anti-BJP parties too hold the same view. But to be fair to Jayalalitha, this time her role is only as much as that of the Congress and the Left in planning alternative moves if and when the Vajpayee government falls.
Key players in the Opposition's parleys are Sonia, CPM general secretary Harkishan Singh Surjeet, West Bengal Chief Minister Jyoti Basu and CPI general secretary A B Bardhan. These leaders have met in recent times and all of them normally have a tendency to make every meeting count. And yesterday's meeting of Janata Party president Subramanian Swamy with Sonia, their third, is lending some meat to the speculation.
Apparently, the Congress and the Left feel the time is ripe for the BJP's ouster after its massive defeats in the November 25 round of State elections. The idea is to go on the offensive when the BJP is reeling and not allow it any time to regroup. With this in mind, the focus is on the mandate against the BJP which is being interpreted as a solidvote against the continuance of the BJP at the Centre.
The Congress has repeatedly said it will not act as the destabilising force in toppling the BJP-led government. And since no other party too would like such a label, the stress is on the ``people's verdict''. It is understood that the Sonia-Swamy meeting, where Swamy basically carried Jayalalitha's message to the Congress president, agreed that the ``people's verdict has to be honoured''.
What that would logically mean is open to debate but the feeling is it could imply the end of Vajpayee's current term as Prime Minister. However, a host of imponderables still exist if anything is precipitated at the Centre. For one, Jayalalitha, who denied today that she would pull the government down, could put off her trip to Delhi. Alternatively, the Opposition feels the BJP could still step in and mollify the AIADMK chief. Or, even if the government falls, the chances of another government being formed in this Lok Sabha is open to question.
Copyright ©1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.