JAKARTA, Dec 27: Following a traumatic 12 months which saw savage rioting and the fall of former President Suharto after 32 years in power, Indonesia is stumbling into 1999 with hopes pinned on June elections to pull it out of its descent into chaos.But with no clear popular front-runner, and the veteran leader's shadow still hanging over the country, the promised polls on June 7 have already shown alarming signs of becoming a dirty war.
``It's going to be bloody,'' said Sita Supomo, one of a small but growing group of ``young professionals'' who back the cries for ``reformasi'' (reform) by the thousands of students who take almost daily to the streets. ``If you think last year was bad, that was just a learning curve,'' she said, adding Jakarta's young elite were divided, with many simply trying to hang onto their jobs as unemployment soars to 20 million.
Political analyst and pro-reformist Muchtar Buchori shares the bleak outlook of a country divided between those who want simply a new face inSuharto's place, and those who want to break the decades-old dictatorial system.
``The Army is divided, the Moslems are divided, I am pessimistic,'' says Buchori, who, like many, sees Suharto's hand behind much of the ugly violence that has rocked. The country in the eight months since his May fall in an effort to protect his family's wealth.
Economists are blunt.
``If the general elections pass satisfactorily, it will mean Indonesia still has a future. But if not it will sink,'' said Rizal Ramli of the Ekonit research institute.
Suharto's hand-picked and most say ``constitutionally illegitimate'' successor, 62-year-old German-trained engineer B J Habibie, has dug in his heels and refused to concede that his tenure is transitional.
He must, he argues, first steer the country to elections, a stand distrusted by students and reformists who see him using the presidency to try to cement his position, grab the elections and protect Suharto, who shows no sign of fleeing the country.
But, in thewords of one presidential hopeful, Amien Rais, the alternative proposed by the students of a ``people's committee'' to run the government until the polls can be held, is to many a much scarier prospect.
No one expects the students, almost a dozen of whom have been shot dead in the streets, to back down. They want Suharto dragged to court, the military returned to their barracks and are watching with deep distrust as the Suharto-era parliament, draws up new election laws.
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.