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Friday, January 1, 1999

Sanctions should not be used as a sledgehammer: Prakash Shah

Jyoti Malhotra  
NEW DELHI, DEC 31: Dial Prakash Shah on a New York number (00-1-212...) and you get him within a matter of minutes in Baghdad. Even in times of war, the magic of modern telephony helps you easily reach India's former diplomat, and now the man in the hot seat in the Iraqi capital.

Since April, he's been UN Secretary-General (UNSG) Kofi Annan's eyes and ears in one of the most troublesome spots in the world. As Baghdad edged out Bosnia as the world's top story in 1998, Shah was variously found to be sidestepping US Cruise missiles, convincing the Iraqi leadership to abide by UN Security Council resolutions, as well as reporting back home (in this case NY, not Gujarat) about the new limits of endurance reached by the ancient people of Mesopotamia, as they struggled with life under the weight of eight-year-old sanctions.

``The Iraqis see us, the UN, as fair and sympathetic to their sufferings. They know the Americans are very powerful, but they also see us as a symbol of hope. As an Indian, it sometimesbecomes very embarrassing; I am recognised in the streets, and people come up to me saying, `we hope you can lift sanctions,''' says Shah, describing his new incarnation as the UNSG's special envoy to Iraq.

The contradictions in the situation are only matched by grim reality. The US, clearly the reigning superpower in the decade after the end of the Cold War, has been able to browbeat the Arab nations into postponing their annual League meeting. With the price of oil falling below $10 a barrel -- pre-1971 prices -- a sullen silence emanated from the Gulf, as US planes once again bombed Iraqi cities earlier in the month.

Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, dependent on huge infusions of US aid, supported the US strikes. Oman, Qatar, Jordan and the UAE, who have publicly sought the withdrawal of the sanctions, privately expressed anger, but didn't utter a word.

NATO member Turkey, otherwise willing to play the role of the US cat's paw in the region, maintained a diplomatic silence because of its own problemswith its rebellious Kurdish minority that spills into Iraq. The mood in Baghdad itself is largely resigned, says Shah, describing a remarkably peacetime-like situation: how people got up the morning after the bombings, went to work and returned home. ``It's very difficult to gauge public opinion in a non-democratic society, but it was business as usual. Life is hard after 8 years of sanctions, there's not much to offer in terms of diversity; at least in the UN office, we have the Internet to keep us connected with the rest of the world.''

Shah points out that Iraqi president Saddam Hussein has been able to keep his country together, despite Washington's publicly stated objective to ``remove'' him. Other people who have recently returned from Baghdad agree that despite Hussein's dictatorial tendencies, the people seem to have rallied around their leader, if only because they see the US use of force as highly immoral.

But as the new year turns old and the Security Council gets ready for a spirited debatelater in the month on the US' unilateral use of force, analysts say the Iraq crisis has, for the first time in the post-Cold War decade, generated tensions within the five permanent members of the Security Council that could spell the end of the unipolar order.

Clearly, the Council seems split down the middle, with the US-UK duo ranged against the other permanent and non-permanent members of the Council. Shah says the demand is to raise the level of decision-making from one that is purely technical, ie away from UN inspectors seeking to expose Iraq's weapons of mass destruction, to a political one that is taken by the Council itself.

``The Council should decide whether Iraq is a threat to its neighbours or not, whether Iraq has destroyed 100 per cent of its weapons or only 98 per cent, and give a time-frame when sanctions against it will be lifted. Such a comprehensive review will meet the needs of both sides. A new approach is needed to break the current stalemate. Should the UNSG play a greater role inresolving this stalemate, is one of the questions the Council should decide,'' he said.

Annan, who has accused the UN chief inspector Richard Butler of being ``undiplomatic at times'', has also questioned the use of open-ended sanctions. Adds Shah, ``Sanctions shouldn't be used as a sledgehammer, they don't stop or change anything. The point is to give diplomacy another chance.''

Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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