No one, least of all the main actors, can predict how long the current spell of political uncertainty at the Centre will last. A great deal hinges not only on what the AIADMK's endgame turns out to be but on how batteries of small political entities assess and reassess their options. Even as it is possible that the status quo will be restored shortly or that the process of realignment will be cut short in some other fashion, there are too many contradictions in the treasury benches as well as in the opposition to allow for optimism about an early outcome.Past practice in the making and unmaking of coalition governments and the reluctance of all parties to face early elections point to protracted manoeuvres and uncertainty. At this time of economic recession, when new legislation is jammed in the works and major change is occurring on the foreign policy front, a long stretch of political instability is the last thing the country needs. It may not be practical to expect a quick reshuffling of the pack butruling and opposition parties do have the responsibility of ensuring that government work does not come to a standstill.
The goings-on in Delhi which have already caused pressure on the rupee-dollar exchange rate and volatility in stock markets are leading to fears in business and industry about the fate of Yashwant Sinha's budget proposals. The question of whether those proposals will be retained in the event there is a change of government is bound to lead to the suspension of business plans unless some kind of reassurances are forthcoming.
It can be assumed that at the least basic changes to the structure of excise and customs levies will survive political shifts because they are very necessary and the thrust of all recent budgets has been in this direction.
But will companies be willing to go ahead and bet on good sense prevailing whatever the final configuration at the Centre? Vague promises from political actors to shield the economy from political turbulence are not enough. There must be specificassurances and the government in particular must try and indicate how it intends to keep the budget on track.
Other major policy and legislation, from empowerment of the Central Vigilance Commis-sioner to Prasar Bharati to decisions about the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, look like remaining in suspended animation awaiting the return of political coherence. Progress in many areas has been halting in any case because of coalition politics and the absence of opposition support at critical junctures.
Precisely because the government's difficulties are compounded by present uncertainties, it must redouble its efforts to ensure work in progress is not stalled. With urban land ceiling legislation to replace the ordinance and a drugs policy, for example, it should be business as usual. The rapprochement with Pakistan should proceed undisturbed. People may be reconciled to the eternal shenanigans of politicians and the ups and downs of coalitions. They do not expect the whole government to seize up every time acrisis comes to a head. It will do something for morale to see the government governing despite everything.
Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.