At present, however, several disparate voices are coming out of Moscow. Yeltsin who said initially that Russia would not be sucked into the Kosovo imbroglio is warning of Russian military involvement if pushed into it by NATO. It is unclear whether the Russian president has gone as far as the Duma speaker, Gennady Seleznev, claims, and ordered the retargeting of Russian missiles. Targeting (or retargeting) missiles is a small step technically but a significant one politically not only in the obvious sense of sending a message to NATO but in what it says about the origins of the message. What it may indicate is a shift in the balance of forces within the shaky Russian political establishment. Far-fetched though Seleznev's proposition of Russian-Belrus-Yugoslavian union sounds, it is, like the missiles and reports of Russian volunteer forces being sent to Yugoslavia, a characteristic hardline response.

Whether or not Russian hardliners gain moreground will depend on the outcome of diplomatic moves which are going on at several levels to find an answer to Kosovo. The moment seems ripe for a diplomatic solution. Slobodan Milosevic's unilateral ceasefire is a clear indication that he wants a negotiated settlement. But, after almost three weeks of unceasing bombing and the exodus of half a million from Kosovo, NATO believes its credibility (and its future effectiveness) will be at stake unless it is seen to ``prevail'' in Kosovo. Quite what ``prevailing'' entails has not been spelled out. However, the fact that President Clinton, if not the Europeans, remains reluctant to send in ground troops means that NATO is looking for an honourable way out. There have also been more than a few indications that NATO has wised up to the importance of an international force supervising any peace settlement. The Russians, minus their missiles, have an important role waiting for them here. A Russian-brokered plan and, if necessary, a military mission under theauthority of the Security Council to guarantee the return of refugees looks like the best hope for all sides.