With too many contradictions in the Opposition ranks, government formation is not going to be as easy as it was to bring down the BJP ministry. The country seems headed for an early election, possibly even in June, and this may be the cleanest and most honourable way out now.

With the defeat of the confidence motion by one vote, it is going to be very difficult now for any party to run a stable government. Such a photo finish is unprecedented in the country's history with the Lok Sabha evenly divided, with 270 for the Government (if the Speaker's vote is to be counted) and 270 against it. Had Orissa chief minister Giridhar Gamang not voted, it would have been a tie-breaker and the Government would have scraped through with the Speaker's vote.

But the Congress is not so happily placed today as it was last November as far aselections go. The defeat of Atal Behari Vajpayee's government by a solitary vote could well result in a sympathy vote for him, particularly if the opposition which brought the government down without any major issue dominating the debate, comes across as being unable to sink its differences to forge an alternative arrangement. It will be seen as an exercise merely to grasp power.

Though the Congress had been on the ascent, elections now will ensure alliances in Tamil Nadu, Bihar and possibly even Uttar Pradesh. This could make a simple majority elusive for the Congress.

The Congress chief appears to have been cornered. Her best case scenario was for the BJP government to have scraped through by one or two votes, and to have limped on till she was better placed to go to the polls after the November elections. The BJP was all set to win the vote till last night. But MP chief Minister Digvijay Singh and Sharad Pawar along with Jayalalitha and Subramanian Swamy managed to ``convince'' Mayawati to vote withthe Opposition even though she had declared in the House that she would abstain.

Scenario number two is for the Congress to try and form a minority government on its own with the outside support of other parties, and theoretically speaking, it is the best option for the party. But this seems a far cry today. The RSP and the Forward Bloc have already ruled out supporting a Sonia-led Congress government. The others who are likely to oppose such an arrangement are Mulayam Singh Yadav and he accounts for 20 MPs today for the simple reason that the elevation of Sonia would go towards reviving the party in Uttar Pradesh at the expense of Mulayam. He will therefore not commit harakiri. Chandra Shekhar is also not likely to lend his support to Sonia Gandhi, even though he has a lone vote, but then every vote counts now.

The possibility of the Congress now pillaging in the BJP camp cannot be ruled out and it is possible that the National Conference and the Independent members from the North East, may swingtowards it. There is a group in the Samata Party which was at one time amenable to a break, but members are now aware that elections are not far away. Some of them could go with the RJD but Laloo is not about to do anything that will strengthen the Congress at the expense of the RLM.

The Congress has already prepared a list of its possible Cabinet ministers in the hope that if Sonia Gandhi stakes her claim to form a government as the leader of the second largest party in the Lok Sabha, others may just have to fall in line because they do not want elections.

Scenario three is for the Congress to head a coalition government. This is something Sonia Gandhi should be highly wary of. She is believed to have assured TMC leader G K Moopanar, who called on her yesterday, that the AIDMK would not be part of the government. The TMC had sought such an assurance from her. The task of synthesising the contradictions between the TMC and the AIDMK on the one hand and the BSP and Mulayam Singh on the other in the samegovernment is not an easy task even for someone who is experienced in political management.

Even six months of running a coalition government -- by someone new to the vagaries of governance in a fractured 12th Lok Sabha -- is full of pitfalls, with most of the players known to be mavericks with a record of demanding their pound of flesh at every turn. Before she knows it, the incumbency factor could begin to impinge on the forthcoming elections in Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh in November and in six other states early next year.

Alternatively, Sonia could anoint someone other than herself from the Congress as leader, like Shiv Shankar or Manmohan Singh, to manage the coalition for a few months till elections can be held. But the mood of partymen is against accepting anyone other than her as leader.

Scenario four is for the Congress to support someone in the Third Force. There is no dearth of candidates, be it H D Deve Gowda, Mulayam Singh, Chandra Shekhar or Jyoti Basu. Worried Congressmen weresuggesting Basu's name as a possible way out to provide a credible government in a situation which is now looking to be pretty messy.

But the Congress would be a loser in this situation. It would be neither in the government -- and this is something party MPs are going to resist -- nor in the opposition. This would halt the party's revival process as it had during 1996-98 when it had to support the United Front from outside.