According to the review on the country's economy for March-April by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), data till February confirm that exports in 1998-99 are likely to remain lower at US $ 33.5 billion compared to US $ 34 billion in 1997-98.

Trade deficit for the year 1998-99 is estimated to rise to $ 8.5 billion from $ 6.8 billion in 1997-98. However, the deficit for February 1999 at $ 0.3 billion was substantially lower than US $ 0.8 billion in February 1998 and US $ 0.5 billion in January 1999, CMIE said adding this was due to a 10 per cent contraction in imports during the month. During the 11 months ended February 1999, exports were down by two per cent against a three per cent increase in the same period last year, CMIEsaid.

The recovery in exports witnessed during the three months from November 1998 to January 1999 was shortlived as the growth rate dipped again by 4.5 per cent to four per cent in February.

In November, export growth rate had turned positive to four per cent from a 12 per cent decline the previous month. December and January had seen the rate climb to seven and eight per cent respectively before falling again in February, CMIE said.

Export performances of seven commodities -- non-basmati rice, tea, gems and jewellery, guargum meal, readymade garments, metal manufactures and handicraft -- were satisfactory, recording a 20 per cent growth and accounting for 40 per cent of the total exports during the period. During April-January 1998-99, the country's exports to Asian countries declined by 19 per cent, CMIE said adding India's exports to Japan, the largest market in Asia, fell by 14% during the period.

On the imports front, the total figure during 1998-99 is likely to be up by three per cent at $ 42billion as compared with a four per cent growth in the previous financial year, according to the review.

During April-November 1998, imports grew by 9.5%. However, in the subsequent three months, imports declined by 6% which pulled down the overall growth to three per cent during April-February 1998-99, it said. Imports of food items went up by 50% to $ 2.1 billion while gold and silver imports went up to $ 4.1 billion from $ 2.1 billion. Project goods import went up to $ 1.7 billion from $ 1.2 billion, according to the review.