The CSOS positive estimates on GDP crucially hinged on an estimated 5.3 per cent growth in agricultural output, I-Sec said adding that crop output growth would be only in the range of 1.5-2 per cent as there had been a decline in kharif crop. I-Sec has estimated that based on this premise the GDP growth is likely to be around 4.5 per cent. On the country's economic recovery, it said the economic slowdown had been compounded by the political situation facing the country.

``Chances of an immediate recovery have diminished in light of the political uncertainty. Many important bills like the Insurance Bill are awaiting parliamentary approval and could now be delayed,'' it said. The services sector, which has a weightage of 46% in the GDP, will continue to be astar-performer growing at a rate of 6.5 per cent, according to I-Sec's calculations. Comparatively, industry (weightage in GDP:31 %) is likely to grow at 3.5% and agriculture (weightage in GDP:23 %) is likely to grow at 1.5%. This year's budget had targeted a direct tax collection of Rs 59,235 crore and indirect tax collections of Rs 1,17,625 crore based on the premise of a strong economic upturn. Also an aggressive target of Rs 10,000 crore had been set to be raised through disinvestment, I-Sec said.

The budgeted fiscal deficit which had been pegged at Rs 79,995 crore is likely to overshoot by Rs 15,000 crore, if the tax collections go awry, given the current economic downturn, I-Sec said. In case of fiscal slippage the sovereign gross borrowing for 1999-2000 could be higher than the budgeted Rs 84,014 crore, it said.