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Thursday, July 1, 1999

Changed China

 
It is time Pakistan stopped battering its head against the walls of the Forbidden City and got on with the peace process. Beijing has consistently spurned Islamabad's overtures and is not about to turn charitable all of a sudden. It is silly of Islamabad to assume that it would want to back its misadventure in Kargil merely because it happens to be against the US at present. Beijing's compulsions are very different. The US is trying to widen its nuclear umbrella in Asia through the theatre missile system, which will erode Beijing's bargaining position vis-a-vis Taiwan. This issue has nothing to do with the situation in South Asia. Here, China simply cannot afford to have a nuclear conflict on its western border, which would undermine its status in the region. In addition, it has often been alleged that Beijing transferred nuclear and missile technology to Pakistan, both directly and through North Korea. In fact, the Chinese missile program is believed to have been funded to some extent by foreign sales. If anuclear conflict breaks out in South Asia, Pakistan is likely to be the first party to push the button. And China would have to shoulder part of the responsibility for pushing the process of non-proliferation back by some decades. It gave a child matches and the child is now turning out to be a perverse little firebug. The originator of the gift shall not escape opprobrium.

Besides, Pakistan should understand that China probably appreciates India's compulsions for testing the bomb last year far better than the rest of the world. Like India, it became a nuclear power on the strength of nationalism alone. It was, in fact, the first time that a low-tech nation with a narrow economic base displayed the capacity to develop the most sophisticated weapons systems. Given the similarity, the sympathies of the Chinese are far more likely to lie with India than with Pakistan. Besides, Beijing cosied up with Islamabad at a time when Tibet was still an issue and when it wanted access to the oilfields of Central Asia.Tibet is a consolidated possession now, in the process of being settled by people from elsewhere in China and in the meantime, abundant oil reserves have been discovered in the South China Sea. The compulsions of the past no longer look that compelling.

While it is comforting to have the Chinese on the side of the angels, the government should not let it go to its head. It should neither appear to be too grateful for China's friendship, nor too smug about being the good boy. In the winter of 1955, a tumultuous welcome was accorded to Soviet leaders Bulganin and Nikita Krushchev, when schoolchildren were commandeered to wave flags and the masses prevailed upon to bend balconies with their collective weight. Rather perplexingly, India seems to have had no clear goals other than the desire to make friends. That was then, in an era when India, still fairly new on the international scene, needed friends. Today, a more mature India should play the game by the rules, recognising that the friendship of nations isdictated more by exigency than affinity or neighbourliness. It should be prepared for a near future in which China is no longer prepared to lend a sympathetic ear.

Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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