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Tuesday, July 27, 1999

India & Pak were on brink of war -- Post

PRESS TRUST OF INDIA  
WASHINGTON, July 26: India and Pakistan were on brink of a full-scale war, possibly involving nuclear weapons, during the Kragil crisis and "the danger is far from over," the Washington Post claimed on Monday quoting senior US officials.

"It was very, very easy to imagine how this crisis... Could have escalated out of control, including in a way that brought in nuclear weapons, without either party consciously deciding that it wanted to go to a nuclear war," the Post quoted senior Clinton administration officials as saying.

However, they said "the danger is far from over and the situation could reverse itself quickly" referring to the continued fighting in Kargil as intruders were still holding some positions in the area.

Speaking on the condition of anonymity, they claimed India was readying to prepare a second front in Rajasthan against Pakistan should it fail to dislodge infiltrators from Kargil and cited intelligence reports to support their claim.

In case of such an eventuality,"Pakistani forces, overwhelmed by India's much larger Army, may have found themselves backed into a corner that could have tempted them to play their last card (nuclear weapons)," the Post said.

According to the paper, White House officials were eager to tell the story of President Clinton's role in defusing the crisis and approached it with the details. Clinton's meeting on July 4 with Pakistani Premier Nawaz Sharif paved way for easing tension along the Line of Control (LoC) with the latter agreeing to withdraw its forces from Kargil.

As fighting raged around Kargil, the Post claimed, "US spy satellites revealed a new and alarming development. Hundreds of miles to the south of Rajasthan....The Indian Army's main offensive `strike force' were loading tanks, artillery and other heavy artillery into flatbed rail cars."

"It appeared as if India were preparing to invade Pakistan."

The Post, quotes White House officials, keeping track of the issue, as claiming that "at least in theshort term, President Clinton helped avert that prospect after his widely reported Independence Day meeting with Sharif."

"But the full dimensions of the crisis are now coming to light....The latest conflict over Kashmir came much closer to a full-scale war than was publicly acknowledged at that time - raising real fears that one or both countries coud resort to using variants of the nuclear devices each tested last year."

Indian Ambassador to the US Naresh Chandra told the Post about the military preparations outside Kashmir: "It was precautionary. We were always sure from our side that we would not do anything tht would enlarge the conflict on the Line of Control or the International Border."

However, said the Post "that is not how the Indian moves were interpreted in Washington. US officials noted as Indian soldiers continued to come home in body bags and aurid tales of alleged Pakistani atrocities filled Indian newspapers, India's ruling party, the Bharatiya Janata Party, which facesre-election this September - was coming under increasing domestic political pressure to adopt a more forceful response."

"They (White House officials) feared if India failed to dislodge the Pakistani infiltrators in Kashmir, it might open a second front that could engulf the two countries in a full-scale war.

"They noted that within a few weeks of the first Indian preparations, Pakistan too began to prepare offensive units."

The Post said whether either country would have resorted to nuclear weapons is, of course, pure speculation. "US officials refused to say if there was any evidence that either country was preparing to do so.

"US officials say they could easily envision a scenario under which Pakistani forces, overwhelmed by India's much larger Army, could find themselves backed into a corner that could tempt them to play their last and most devastating card.

"There wasn't any question that this thing could have gone to a high level," said a US official who closely followed the crisis."That is what scared us."

The intelligence warnings, said the Post, set off a frantic scramble at the highest levels of the Clinton administration. The President himself was intimately involved in the crisis, dispatching letters to the Indian and Pakistani Prime Ministers in early June and staying in regular telephone contact with each during the weeks that followed.

The thrust of Clinton's message was that each side should show restraint and respect the `sanctity' of the LoC."

In "mediating the conflict," US officials said, they strove to maintain transparency, ie to keep both sides informed of their action, in order to allay Indian fears that Washington would tilt toward Pakistan, a close military ally throughout the cold war.

Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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