Admits Deputy Director, Agriculture, J R Patel, ``The damage is one per cent today. By next week, it'll be five per cent; in eight days, 50 per cent. If there are no rains within a fortnight, the damage will be complete and total. The entire process will have to begin again.''

The district's average monsoon rainfall (from June/July to September) is 900 mm. So far, it has received less than half that quantity.

Quoting the status of kharif crop as reported on Monday morning by the District Panchayat's Agriculture department experts say the delay in rains has already prompted farmers to start diverting their fields to crops requiring less water than paddy, cotton and pulses. This implies that that the production of these crops will suffer a shortfall.

According to officials, the report, which has been submitted to the State Agricultural Directorate, says farmers had sowed paddy in less than 48,000 hectares down from 55,000 hectares last year. Maize and millet have been sown in 5,000 and 200 hectares less than last year. Cowpeas, groundnut and sesamum are being grown on 2,000 hectares less than last year, tobacco about 10,000 hectares less and sugarcane, 1,000 hectares less.

``These are the district's principal crops, irrigated or rain-fed. Their production will be less this season'', says District Agriculture Officer S D Patel. Compounding the failure of the rains is, as J R Patel admits, the fact that the level of 40,000 tube-wells, seven main ponds and three rivers that feed fields has all fallen alarmingly.

``I know about the damage, but don't have the exact details'', says State Agriculture Minister B Badhani. ``I myself am a farmer from Amreli and a former agriculture officer in the State government. Therefore I know how much delayed rains can hurt farmers.''

If the explanation for the way things are trip glibly off official tongues, farmers choke on their words as they try to explain what the delay in rains means to them. ``We feel betrayed by nature'', says Kanjubhai Parmar, a Dabhoi-based farmer and Panchayat member. ``We don't remember anything like this in years'', adds Jagdish Shah, one of the principal producers of vegetables and pulses in Dabhoi.

Bleak forecast
For the moment, the prospect of rains is bleak for Vadodara district. ``My office is not predicting good rains for the next three days'', says Director of the Meteorology department, Gandhinagar, R K Kankane. ``I don't know about the future.''