The merger of the Janata Dal (U), Lok Shakti and Samata Party -- which is virtually a merger of the dominant JD faction with the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance at the Centre -- was a political earthquake on the eve of the elections in Karnataka. It will change the electoral topography and the aftershocks will be felt for a long time to come.The political drama was scripted and directed by the Lok Shakti's Ramakrishna Hegde and the Samata Party's George Fernandes, liberally sprinkled with the masala of a Bollywood potboiler. Chief Minister J.H.Patel, who barely a few hours before the drama unfolded, had described the BJP as a ``cancer'' and the Congress as a ``curse'', chose to join hands with the saffron party in ``national interest'' for not only providing a ``stable government but also a stable society''.
``BJP ondu benki hachchuva paksha'' (BJP is an arsonist) Patel had said on umpteen occasions. But all that disappeared in smoke within minutes. The cadre of all the three parties wereshell-shocked and couldn't comprehend what was happening. Baffled and bemused, they kept wondering whether the merger was actually a merger or a split. Karnataka minister V.Somanna remarked: ``Our leaders are suffering from major ailments. We don't know what to do.''
The state BJP, obviously, found the ground slipping from under its feet. It doesn't want to have any truck with the J.H.Patel faction of the JD and there has been a virtual revolt in the state unit over this. Largely because Patel is considered a liability. It has deprived the BJP of the anti-incumbency plank. Moreover, its very identity as a viable national alternative to the Congress has been jeopardised. The party was prepared to face the election in alliance with the Lok Shakti but it has been given no choice by Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee.
Patel, on the other hand, couldn't have asked for anything better. He has silenced the rhetoric of the BJP against his government.
It appears at first that one of the major casualties of themerger has been the Lok Shakti. Out of the 95 assembly seats (in a total of 224) allotted to it by the BJP, the Lok Shakti has managed to get just 35. A majority of the seats originally allotted to it has now been grabbed by the Patel faction of the Dal. There was a virtual revolt in the Lok Shakti against Hegde and party workers pelted stones at his residence. State party president Jeevraj Alva almost broke down, convinced that his party was taken for a ride.
Canny political observers, however, point out that the biggest beneficiary of the entire exercise has been Hegde himself, to the disadvantage of his arch political rival, former Prime Minister H D Deve Gowda. It has not only consolidated the significant Lingayat vote-bank -- earlier divided mainly between the BJP and the Janata Dal -- but has also forced many Vokkaliga (Gowda) leaders hostile to Gowda to join forces with Hegde which they otherwise might not have done.
The merger has also provided Hedge's Lok Shakti with the political apparatus itneither had, nor chose to build. In fact, many observers say Hedge deliberately did not bother about creating a party organisation because he knew Patel and company would join him sooner or later.
Soon after Hegde's expulsion from the JD, which was immediately after Gowda became Prime Minister, Chief Minister J.H.Patel had said: ``Gowda is in Delhi, Patel is in Bangalore. We know where to keep the Kulkarni (read Hegde/Brahmin).'' That was the time when Hegde and his supporters were busy enticing Dal MLAs to their camp. Hegde seems to be having the last laugh.
Also, with the Lok Shakti not attracting too many ``men of substance'', politically speaking, the party was also handicapped by a lack of eligible candidates. That problem has now been solved. But most important of all, the JD(U)-NDA tie-up has increased Hegde's bargaining power with the rebellious state unit of the BJP as far as seat-sharing is concerned.
Mannina maga (son-of-the-soil) Gowda's chances of rising from the ashes have been marredtotally. While releasing the JD (Secular) manifesto, Gowda said he would confine himself to Karnataka in order to teach those who had betrayed the party a lesson. The JD (U) is after all, as one political observer put it, ``a cohesive unit of like-minded people uneasy with Deve Gowda''. It has dramatically shrunk Gowda's constituency in his home state to an old equation -- the erstwhile Samajwadi Janata Party. In other words, isolation.
There is no doubt that but for the bickerings over seat-sharing -- evident from the list of ``official'' and ``unofficial'' candidates in the fray -- the combination is set to romp home with a thumping victory.
The post-poll scenario is likely to be painful with BJP leaders like B.S.Yediyurappa and Ananth Kumar dreaming of taking over the reigns of the state and the possibility of Hegde and his followers, particularly state Lok Shakti president Jeevaraj Alva, also staking claim.
Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.