In the highly caste-conscious constituency of Barh, Nitish erred in giving too much importance to one community. The over-dependence of the Samata Party's Bihar chief on own MLA and co-Kurmi Shrawan Kumar left the dominant Bhumihars irked. They comprise almost 7 per cent of the population here and felt that Kurmis, who form 12 per cent, were usurping their share of power. A letter from underworld don Suraj Bhan, a Bhumihar, threatening that Nitish would not be allowed to open his office in Mokameh reflected the anger in the community.

But an astute politician, Nitish has managed to bring the Bhumihars around. So much so that a general body meeting of the Brahmarshi Samaj (Bhumihars call themselves thedescendants of saint Brahmarshi) on September 19 vowed to throw its entire might behind Nitish and ensure his success. Local sources now say that Nitish had angered the underworld because of his refusal to award certain railway contracts to their men. Bhan, for example, is believed to have contacts with contractors in Gorakhpur.

While one reason for the Bhumihar turnaround may be the fact that the RJD nominee is a Rajput and the two communities have no love lost, the primary cause is Atal Behari Vajpayee. Says a local Bhumihar strongman, Ambika Nandan Prasad: ``How could we betray our beloved leader Atal Behari Vajpayee? We are not against Nitish personally. Some of his close aides were creating all kinds of problems, but the matter has been sorted out now. The Bhumihars would not only cast their own votes, but have decided to go all out and help others in casting votes for Nitish.''

The Vajpayee wave, which is quite strong across Bihar, is clearly noticeable in Barh, where only one meeting by the PrimeMinister seems to have changed the entire scene. The RJD campaign, which has been on for almost a month, seems to be in disarray. The local people are impressed with the fact that while Vajpayee skipped George Fernandes's Nalanda seat, he came to Nitish's Barh. Some insist that this shows the former railway minister is close to Vajpayee. The laying of the foundation stone for an NTPC factory by Vajpayee here has also strengthened support for Nitish.

To make it worse for Laloo, even many Rajputs -- who constitute 5 per cent of the population -- may not vote for his candidate, Vijay Krishna. Anand Mohan Singh, who has emerged as a new leader of the Rajputs, is campaigning for Nitish in Barh. He is believed to have a strong hold among the younger Rajputs.

Paswan is doing rest of the work for Nitish. A comrade in his ``crusade'' against Laloo's ``jungle raj'', the Janata Dal (United) leader has visited Barh several times. The constituency's 23 per cent Dalit population is not expected to remain unaffected bythese visits.

The RJD is making its desperation obvious, even holding Nitish responsible for the murder of a Rajput, Bhola Singh. However, by going to the extent of trying to set Nitish's house afire and pelting stones at it, they have hurt their own cause. Even Nitish's opponents are reluctant to buy the theory that he patronises criminals, particularly as his ``clean and honest'' image is one of his biggest assets in Bihar.

Nitish has played upon this during the campaign, assuring the voters: ``I will never indulge in acts which bring a bad name to my supporters and the electorate of Barh.''