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Thursday, October 14, 1999

True to pattern

 
The military coup in which Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was dismissed has left Pakistan standing at a crossroad. The world will watch anxiously to see what direction it takes and whether the breakdown of constitutional order will be followed by martial law, an interim civilian government pending fresh elections or a deeper slide into political anarchy. All three must be considered possibilities until more is known about General Pervez Musharraf's motivations and what he intends to do next. Does he believe like earlier military dictators that the army is Pakistan's only guarantor of stability and peace? Does he have hitherto unsuspected political ambitions? Or was he reacting to a specific provocation, what he calls attempts to cause dissension in the army? Islamabad's rumour mill had been grinding on about a coup for some weeks and the actual military takeover went like clockwork. But much more than these coincidences will be needed to establish that the coup was planned in advance. After all, rumours areoften started to pre-empt an event or tarnish a reputation. Furthermore, in the course of 30 months, Sharif had got rid of a chief justice, a president, an army chief and a naval chief. He had also put the press and his main political rivals under severe pressure. It would not be stretching logic too far to suppose that in the bitter aftermath of Kargil it was Musharraf's turn to go. So it is possible contingency plans were made against his removal.

In any case the trigger for the deposition of Sharif himself was his sudden decision to sack the army chief and replace him with the ISI chief, Lt Gen Khawaja Ziauddin, who is known to have become close to Sharif in the last year. Just two weeks earlier Musharraf was given a two-year extension as chairman of the joint chiefs of staff committee. That move seemed to suggest Sharif and Musharraf had made peace with each other after falling out over Kargil. Had the prime minister and the general in fact agreed to stop blaming each other and to take jointresponsibility for the deeply unpopular withdrawal from Kargil, they may have been able to minimise the political fallout. But there seems to have been too much mistrust between them. The reaction in Pakistan to the dismissal of one more democratically elected prime minister is bound to be ambivalent. On the one hand Pakistanis no doubt cherish the democratic right to choose their own government. On the other they have had too much experience of corrupt, self-serving and incompetent politicians. So Pakistanis will probably be sorry to see the democratic system disrupted but will not waste any tears on Sharif. There cannot be any extenuating circumstances for Musharraf's subversion of Pakistan's constitution. But it must be said that Sharif is responsible for his own downfall. Pakistanis will want to ask how the politician who won the largest popular mandate in history became a monumental autocrat in less than three years and could work with no one -- the courts, the media, provincial government and theopposition. Since 1988 Pakistan's prime ministers have been sacked five times, four times by the president and after Sharif altered the constitution by the army. What this says is there are surely flaws in the system but there are even more severe shortcomings in the political establishment which is expected to work the system.

The political and constitutional crisis in Pakistan is bound to cause deep disquiet everywhere. Pressure is being mounted by western governments and multilateral financial institutions for the restoration of democracy. The generals cannot be immune for long to such pressure at a time when the country is close to bankruptcy. The outside world fears more militarism and more Islamisation of the body politic in Pakistan. Pakistanis themselves will probably be most concerned about how they are going to get good governance. It is obvious that it is not enough to have an elected government. Pakistan needs somehow to find sober, statesmanlike leaders who put the country beforethemselves.

Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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