The TDP-BJP alliance had polled 50.27 per cent of the popular vote in the state while the Congress had polled 38.46 per cent in 1998. Sonia decided to concentrate on Karnataka where BJP and Lok Shakti leaders were fighting a street battle over the entry of the Janata Dal's discredited J.H. Patel.

But for the BJP, the picture was not half as rosy as the alliance seat tally would seem to suggest (see box). While the TDP's votes grew by 9 per cent due to the alliance with the BJP, the latter failed to acquire the TDP's votes in the majority of seats. The TDP contested 35 seats and had polled 32 per cent of votes in 1998. This year, it contested 34 seats but its vote share went up to 40.66 overcent.

The BJP has no reason to be happy. It had won four Lok Sabha seats and 18 per cent of the popular vote on its own in 1998. It had secured second position in two seats -- Medak and Nizamabad -- and was extremely comfortable in at least 10 seats where it polled more than 20 per cent votes. If it had gone ahead alone or tied up with Lakshmi Parvati's party, it could have secured 10 Lok Sabha seats on its own in a triangular contest.

But the central BJP leadership opted for Chandrababu Naidu to get a reasonable majority in Delhi. It decided to ignore the issue of the party's growth in Andhra for some more time. Even when Naidu forced the BJP to settle for only eight Lok Sabha seats, it meekly acquiesced.

Meanwhile, the decision of the Congress not to align with the Left cost it at least five seats. If the presence of CPI candidates ensured the defeat of the Congress in Bhadrachalam, Pedapalli and Nalgonda, the CPI(M) saw to it that the Congress lost Nellore and Warangal. No doubt, the vote share ofthese two parties came down from 5.6 per cent to 2.7 per cent in 1999, but between them they sealed the fate of the Congress. For example, the CPI polled 16 per cent votes in Bhadrachalam while the TDP peeled away by polling 5 per cent more than the Congress candidate. It was the same story in four other seats.

The arithmetic worked for the TDP-BJP. But some of the bitter realities of Election 1999 must have left Chandrababu Naidu wondering about the erosion of his vital minority vote bank. These crucial votes may not have gone lock, stock and barrel to the Congress, but if Naidu joined the Vajpayee government, he would have lost them for ever. Naidu also knew that the BJP would like to grow on its own in the years to come and could abandon him. His decision not to do any business with the BJP except for extending unconditional outside support to the Vajpayee government was a natural development of this logic.

The BJP has no reason to smile either, despite its wins. Take Rajamundry, for instance. The BJPhad won this seat in 1998 in a triangular contest. It had secured 36.57 per cent votes while the TDP got 35.30 per cent. The Congress was a poor third with 26.99 per cent votes. The BJP-TDP joint tally should have gone to 71.87 per cent. but it didn't happen. The BJP got 51 per cent votes whilethe Congress vote soared to 44.20 per cent.

It was the same story in Secunderabad, Tirupati, Medak, Mahboobnagar and Karimnagar. The Congress gained 23 per cent votes to touch the 47 per cent mark though it lost the Karimnagar seat. The BJP really got a shock in Hyderabad, where its vote share went down from 38 per cent to 31 per cent despite an alliance with the TDP.

In Parvatipuram, the TDP had won the seat by a margin of 4 per cent in 1998. In 1999, its candidate won by a margin of only 2 per cent. In Chittoor, the TDP's margin was 11 per cent in 1998, but after the alliance with the BJP it went down to 2.4 per cent. In Nizamabad, the TDP's victory margin came down from 5 per cent to just half a percentage point.In Karimnagar too, the margin came down from 12 per cent to less than half a point for the BJP. In Warangal, the victory margin was reduced from 3.2 per cent to 1.7 per cent.

The Bobbili seat was lost by the TDP to the Congress though it won from there in 1998 with a margin of 4 per cent. No doubt, in Kakinada and Nandyal the victory margin went up steeply and also resulted in a loss of 17 seats to the Congress. But a shrewd Chandrababu is keeping an eye on the future and cannot abandon his minority votes just for the sake of the BJP.

The Congress will have to wait in the wings as it cannot defeat this alliance. The arithmetic has guided the outcome. But the fact remains that though the alliance may have won seats, it did not win votes.

Andhra's telling numbers