Even for a country that is used to dramatic and ``unbelievable'' events in the war, last week's happenings set fresh standards: moving almost like a bullet train that swallows wayside stations on its path, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), in a series of fierce artillery battles over six days, took back town after town in northern Sri Lanka from which it had been earlier been dislodged, bringing the military literally to its knees.

Previous LTTE attacks lasted only one or two days and were focussed on just one garrison. This one was different. Even now, the fighting is still not fully over and Sinhalese civilians living in vulnerable areasare leaving for safer places in thousands.

Nedunkerni, Oddusudan, Kanagarayankulam, Ampakamam, Mankulam, Puliyankulam: these tongue twisters are meaningless to outsiders, but since 1997, they had become household names here with Sri Lankans closely following their military as it captured each of these little villages in the northern mainlandknown as the Vannifrom the LTTE in terribly bloody battles. Last week, they watched in horror as the LTTE rolled right back into those towns in an operation codenamed ``Unceasing Waves 3.''

Unable to stop the advance of the Tiger juggernaut as it moved from one army garrison to another, taking back territory, capturing vast quantities of arms and ammunition, thousands of soldiers just fled from its path. No one knows how many combatants were really killed or injured on both sides during these battles. With the two sides giving out conflicting numbers and the censorship of military news, it is impossible to judge who is right. The government said its losses were``limited'' to 101 killed, 122 missing in action, and over 700 injured. The LTTE said last week it had killed over a thousand soldiers. The guerilla group claims to have lost 120 fighters in the battles.

Almost every territorial gain made in Operation Jaya Sekurui, Sri Lanka's longest, biggest and bloodiest operation between May 1997 and November 1998, has now been reversed. The military has had to pull back south to Vavuniya, with analysts warning that the ``frontier town'' could be next on the LTTE's list.

In a short span of one week, the balance of military power has shifted back to the LTTE and a thoroughly devastated army is trying to see how best to salvage the situation. President Kumaratunga has appointed a court of inquiry into the debacle, the army command has been restructured, all soldiers on leave or who fled have been asked to report back immediately. In a sense, the military was the architect of its own collapse: its strategy of wresting more and more territory from the LTTE, apparently toserve political interests, forced it to spread its limited manpower thinly over a vast swathe of land, making it extremely vulnerable to counter-attack.

For its part, in the last one year, the LTTE readily gave up strategically useless ``real estate'' without firing a shot, forcing the army to spread out but preferring to conserve its manpower and materials for the big one. No one can tell how many LTTE cadres participated in these waves of attacks, but one thing is clear: the government had vastly underestimated the group?s strength and frepower and its ability for strategy.

With just over five weeks to go before the December 21 presidential election in which Kumaratunga is seeking a second term, the timing of Operation Unceasing Waves 3 is significant. The LTTE wants to see Kumaratunga lose the coming election, and the military debacle could have its effect on the Sinhalese vote, notwithstanding the warm welcome that she gave two hardline Sinhalese ideologues who defected to her side from the oppositionUnited National Party last week.

The rank and file of the Sri Lankan army is drawn from the majority Sinhala community living in the rural areas, and as news of the string of defeats trickled out, in places like Anuradhapura in central Sri Lanka, people gathered outside the hospital in large numbers as the wounded soldiers were brought in.

The censorship of war news has not served its purpose, but as Kumaratunga lashed out at the media for ``grossly'' exaggerating casualties, it became obvious that she had panicked. ``What would have definitely helped her consolidate the Sinhalese vote was a big military victory against the LTTE.

Instead, she has been given a major defeat. It could have a decisive impact on her chances, just as much as Kargil was convenient for the BJP in India,'' said Loganathan Ketheeshwaran of the Centre for Policy Alternatives. The last word on the LTTE-inflicted debacle on the government, however, is Velupillai Prabhakaran's. There is an added edge of anticipation to his annualMartyrs' Day address on November 26 for some light on how the LTTE views its success on the battlefield.