Star Watch
                     __________VEENU SANDAL

The separatist Hurriyat, the strongest pro-Pakistan outfit, welcoming the Centre’s open invitation to all militant and political groups in Kashmir for an ‘‘unconditional dialogue’’? It would have sounded unbelievable a short while ago. But will the ceasefire hold and the guns remain silent? Will the Hurriyat’s initial positive response herald a new dawn of peace, reason and logic?
According to the cards, these developments mark the beginning of a striking new pattern which will be woven in Jammu and Kashmir in the months ahead. Four distinct and significant trends are likely to emerge. Firstly, in trying to score over each other and win support and wider political acceptability, both Farooq Abdullah and the Hurriyat will gain in political terms. The bigger beneficiary, in terms of an increase in clout and acceptability, will be the Hurriyat and to that end, it will play its cards exceedingly well. This is when the second trend will manifest itself.

The growing influence and visibility of the Hurriyat, coupled with a more constructive approach, will paradoxically lead to complications and divisive tendencies within the disciplined constituents of the Hurriyat itself and spark off differences with other outfits. However, some curious parallels with the situation and the role of Kabul in last year’s hijacking are likely to emerge. Recognising its clear strategic advantage and international importance, Kabul made the most of its strong situation — it took a firm stand on the hijacking and yet made no secret of where its sympathies lay, and ultimately received ‘‘thanks’’ from everybody. And, as in the case of Kabul and the hijacking, a stalemate is likely to prevail in the peace process for sometime after an initial flurry of activity. It is in resolving this stalemate that the third trend will come into evidence: there will be ultimate gains for both the Hurriyat and the people of Kashmir.

However, although Pakistan’s destabilising influence will be greatly reduced, its ‘‘spoil-sport interference’’ is likely to continue and bring matters to a major head that will be a test for all three — the Centre, the State Government and the Hurriyat.
The fourth trend relates primarily to the Hurriyat: on key issues, it is the younger elements within it who are likely to push for certain surprising decisions and carry the day.

(Veenu Sandal read the
Hurriyat’s cards on July 31)

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