Invite Musharraf, but no cricket

Saeed Naqvi

Eyebrows may be raised that neither the hurried response to the NMD project nor issuing an invitation to General Pervez Musharraf and calling off the cease-fire in Kashmir has been preceded by a sufficient debate.

Arguably, the general sense of chaos that attends the NDA government since the Tehelka jolt and the subsequent defeat in the state elections is not all pervasive. The North and South blocks, for instance, are operating relatively cohere- ntly. Yet the absence of a wider discussion is clearly reflective of the fact that the NDA is not a coherent body. For instance, how does one square Uma Bharati’s persistence that we shall not play cricket with Pakistan with the prime minister’s invitation to Musharraf?

It is an incredible political picture. On the one hand is the declining image of the NDA government, morally, and more recently, electorally debilitated. On the other is the absolute certainty that no political upheaval is strong enough to scuttle its longevity. The only possible hiccup en route could be the Presidential election next year.

Those expecting heavens to fall after the anticipated drubbing that is in store for the BJP in UP in October or latest by March, are also likely to be disappointed. Everybody has missed out on the magic nature of this coalition. How does one explain the continuous bumps on the way, the scary thrill of the roller coaster, and the government’s assured lon-gevity despite the perilous journey?

There is a misplaced tendency to expect the NDA structure to be fragile because the United Front, which preceded it, was so imminently collapsible. The simple fact is that in 1996 neither of the large parties could form a government by themselves. Therefore, the Congress, decided to support the third front from the outside. The Congress was in the psychological frame of mind to play the noble role of supporting a structure to keep the BJP out. Narasimha Rao had just led the party to its lowest vote ever.

But for Congressmen to be in the vicinity of power without savouring any of it was as unnatural as keeping a baby away from a lactating mother. So the United Front was pulled down. Don’t forget, at one stage the Congress, in its impatience, had very nearly created the nucleus of a sort of coalition the BJP later wove. But Congressmen themselves pulled down Kesri who had dreamt up an audacious scenario. Sonia Gandhi’s ‘‘we have 272’’ was woefully short on homework.

So, the UP fragility was defined by two basic points: A big chunk of 140 seats was outside the power structure. Secondly, it never could endear itself to big business. The BJP, having learnt from the Congress mistakes, has placed itself at the heart of the NDA.

It has also taken full advantage of the contradictions between the Congress and the UF partners which sharpened even as the Left thwarted every bid by the Congress to share power directly or at least indirectly through the coordination committee. Remember Harkishen Singh Surjeet’s refrain: ‘‘How can we share power with them.We are in direct conflict with them in at least eight states.’’
That exactly is the source of the NDA’s longevity. Supposing, Chandrababu Naidu finds his association with the BJP deleterious to his health, what alternative will he turn to unless the Congress decides to liquidate itself in Andhra Pradesh. Even if he does summon up the courage because some powerful Americans believe he can be PM, there is always Mulayam Singh Yadav, with Amar Singh in tow, willing to play convoluted games to enable the survival of the NDA.

The ultimate irony, of course, is that the Congress now rules in 11 states, shares power in other two. Who knows Punjab too may be added to its tally. If Priyanka Gandhi can be persuaded to make her debut in UP, the political scene could be electrified.

So far, Sonia Gandhi has been seen as an enabling factor, one who by her inability to forge coalitions enables the Vajpayee government to continue. From now onwards her inaction will be seen as the politics of restraint, one that gives the NDA the rope by which it will hang itself by the next general elections. Vajpayee meanwhile is not allowing himself to be pulverized by Tehelka, defeat in the state elections, and the threatened traffic in and out of the NDA coalition. He knows the arithmetic ensures longevity and is therefore, even while admitting mistakes in Kashmir, taking audacious initiatives in the spheres of foreign policy, national security and the economy. Contrary to the impression, I suspect, L. K. Advani is with him, mollifying the restive RSS. Both the recent initiatives on Kashmir and Pakistan have twin possibilities. Success will win Vajpayee, kudos universally, failure will give the RSS an opportunity..